he changing situation in El Salvador, which held presidential elections in early February, illustrates both the allure and risk associated with seeming turns toward “electoral authoritarianism.” Circumstances around the country’s overwhelming re-election of President Nayib Bukele and the continuance of his New Ideas party super-majority in Congress have triggered loud alarm bells among election watchers and many others. Bukele reportedly received 85% or more of the popular vote, with New Ideas winning 54 seats out of 60 in the unicameral Congress. Three of the four remaining seats went to groups considered to be largely aligned with the ruling party.
How did this mega landslide happen? First, the 42–year–old Bukele is a former marketing executive with an exceptional social media presence, leveraging those channels to reach millions of followers directly. Public appearances in casual attire and baseball caps give him an approachable image, allowing him to balance ultra–popularity with a fearsome reputation for aggressive actions to reduce crime and corruption since assuming office in 2019. He has coupled this with other machinations that enabled him to consolidate power, from convincing the Salvadoran Supreme Court to allow him to run for a prohibited second term to eliminating seats in Congress under the guise of cost-cutting.
Tradeoffs for citizens
El Salvador’s citizens are faced with difficult choices. The country’s ongoing struggle with extreme violence, primarily due to gangs, has fueled a sense of deep insecurity within its population. This fear, combined with widespread poverty and inequality, has eroded public trust in the ability of democratic institutions to solve their problems. Many Salvadorans have expressed resignation and a willingness to forfeit some constitutional rights in exchange for safety, allowing the administration to keep a state of emergency in place for nearly two years.
The government’s resulting heavy–handed "mano dura" approach to policing has yielded record incarceration rates alongside rampant accusations of human rights abuses, with critics often facing prosecution and harassment. Once known for having the world’s highest murder rates, El Salvador is now cited as having some of the world’s highest prison rates.
Meanwhile, judicial independence and press freedoms have become more limited in recent years, according to Corruptionrisk.org and other sources. And under the current state of emergency, the government is allowed to suspend some disclosures about government spending, contract information, and anti-corruption efforts. These are among the issues flagged by Freedom House, which dropped El Salvador’s ten-year Freedom in the World Index score for political rights and civil liberties by 21 points, from 77 to 56 out of 100.
Economic impact
This situation has not been good for business or the economy, which are key to overall quality of life. Economic growth has been limited and extreme poverty rates are now higher than pre-pandemic years, according to the World Bank, which has called on El Salvador to “foster a more dynamic, competitive, and innovative private sector” as part of its economic plan.
Specific recommendations from other groups have focused on digital transformation and digital literacy. Among the areas cited: improving cybersecurity framework, data protections, and online services to citizens and small and medium–sized businesses.
All of this is happening amid increasing concerns about rising debt and diminishing foreign investment in an economy that has been heavily reliant on remittances to drive growth. Meanwhile, Bukele continues to heavily embrace cryptocurrency, despite warnings about volatility. He has also agreed to several significant Chinese development deals, which often include terms that exclude local businesses and labor. Many fear such choices will go completely unchecked in the future, given Bukele’s firm hold on all branches of government.
All that said, the International Trade Commission has noted the administration’s efforts to address the business environment by “streamlining regulations, eliminating red tape, digitizing government services, and streamlining border security and customs.” Hope remains that these are not mere shortcuts to strengthen political power, and instead signal that the Bukele administration accepts the concept that business needs the reliability of fair laws and clear processes for trade and economies to flourish amid calls by the World Bank and others to address obvious matters involving governance and institutions. Time will tell.
Things to consider
El Salvador is among the smallest countries in the world, yet its evolving situation provides some big lessons heading into this year of super elections. Bukele's approach is now being cited as a possible model by a number of leaders facing similar challenges in their countries. At the same time, experts warn that the El Salvador appears to be backsliding in many areas that are limiting the potential of its people and may impact regional stability.
History and hard data tell us that the current path is not sustainable. The most secure, resilient, and prosperous countries meet three important criteria: democratic governance, rule of law, and transparency with accountability. Out of these come common understandings around which communities can operate, and social contracts that can guide behavior and trust among people, as well as foster the inclusion of marginalized groups. This also facilitates free thinking and a strong business environment that yields innovation, job creation, and economic security.
We know how these stories usually end. As evidenced in many other countries, especially in recent decades, civil liberties surrendered in times of crisis are frequently not returned. And when other conditions worsen, autocratic leaders tend to use any means possible to hold onto power, regardless of how they came by it.
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In a super election year, El Salvador’s cautionary tale
Photo by Jaime Alegría on Unsplash.
February 26, 2024
El Salvador is among the smallest countries in the world, yet its evolving situation provides some big lessons heading into this year of super elections, writes Andrew Wilson.
T
he changing situation in El Salvador, which held presidential elections in early February, illustrates both the allure and risk associated with seeming turns toward “electoral authoritarianism.” Circumstances around the country’s overwhelming re-election of President Nayib Bukele and the continuance of his New Ideas party super-majority in Congress have triggered loud alarm bells among election watchers and many others. Bukele reportedly received 85% or more of the popular vote, with New Ideas winning 54 seats out of 60 in the unicameral Congress. Three of the four remaining seats went to groups considered to be largely aligned with the ruling party.
How did this mega landslide happen? First, the 42–year–old Bukele is a former marketing executive with an exceptional social media presence, leveraging those channels to reach millions of followers directly. Public appearances in casual attire and baseball caps give him an approachable image, allowing him to balance ultra–popularity with a fearsome reputation for aggressive actions to reduce crime and corruption since assuming office in 2019. He has coupled this with other machinations that enabled him to consolidate power, from convincing the Salvadoran Supreme Court to allow him to run for a prohibited second term to eliminating seats in Congress under the guise of cost-cutting.
Tradeoffs for citizens
El Salvador’s citizens are faced with difficult choices. The country’s ongoing struggle with extreme violence, primarily due to gangs, has fueled a sense of deep insecurity within its population. This fear, combined with widespread poverty and inequality, has eroded public trust in the ability of democratic institutions to solve their problems. Many Salvadorans have expressed resignation and a willingness to forfeit some constitutional rights in exchange for safety, allowing the administration to keep a state of emergency in place for nearly two years.
The government’s resulting heavy–handed "mano dura" approach to policing has yielded record incarceration rates alongside rampant accusations of human rights abuses, with critics often facing prosecution and harassment. Once known for having the world’s highest murder rates, El Salvador is now cited as having some of the world’s highest prison rates.
Meanwhile, judicial independence and press freedoms have become more limited in recent years, according to Corruptionrisk.org and other sources. And under the current state of emergency, the government is allowed to suspend some disclosures about government spending, contract information, and anti-corruption efforts. These are among the issues flagged by Freedom House, which dropped El Salvador’s ten-year Freedom in the World Index score for political rights and civil liberties by 21 points, from 77 to 56 out of 100.
Economic impact
This situation has not been good for business or the economy, which are key to overall quality of life. Economic growth has been limited and extreme poverty rates are now higher than pre-pandemic years, according to the World Bank, which has called on El Salvador to “foster a more dynamic, competitive, and innovative private sector” as part of its economic plan.
Specific recommendations from other groups have focused on digital transformation and digital literacy. Among the areas cited: improving cybersecurity framework, data protections, and online services to citizens and small and medium–sized businesses.
All of this is happening amid increasing concerns about rising debt and diminishing foreign investment in an economy that has been heavily reliant on remittances to drive growth. Meanwhile, Bukele continues to heavily embrace cryptocurrency, despite warnings about volatility. He has also agreed to several significant Chinese development deals, which often include terms that exclude local businesses and labor. Many fear such choices will go completely unchecked in the future, given Bukele’s firm hold on all branches of government.
All that said, the International Trade Commission has noted the administration’s efforts to address the business environment by “streamlining regulations, eliminating red tape, digitizing government services, and streamlining border security and customs.” Hope remains that these are not mere shortcuts to strengthen political power, and instead signal that the Bukele administration accepts the concept that business needs the reliability of fair laws and clear processes for trade and economies to flourish amid calls by the World Bank and others to address obvious matters involving governance and institutions. Time will tell.
Things to consider
El Salvador is among the smallest countries in the world, yet its evolving situation provides some big lessons heading into this year of super elections. Bukele's approach is now being cited as a possible model by a number of leaders facing similar challenges in their countries. At the same time, experts warn that the El Salvador appears to be backsliding in many areas that are limiting the potential of its people and may impact regional stability.
History and hard data tell us that the current path is not sustainable. The most secure, resilient, and prosperous countries meet three important criteria: democratic governance, rule of law, and transparency with accountability. Out of these come common understandings around which communities can operate, and social contracts that can guide behavior and trust among people, as well as foster the inclusion of marginalized groups. This also facilitates free thinking and a strong business environment that yields innovation, job creation, and economic security.
We know how these stories usually end. As evidenced in many other countries, especially in recent decades, civil liberties surrendered in times of crisis are frequently not returned. And when other conditions worsen, autocratic leaders tend to use any means possible to hold onto power, regardless of how they came by it.
