urrounded by NATO and European Union members, Serbia aims to increase almost all forms of cooperation with China. Beijing sees the Balkan nation as a gateway to Europe, and a significant point on the One Belt One Road (also known as the Belt and Road Initiative or BRI) route. But how will Belgrade’s growing ties with the People’s Republic affect Serbia’s relations with the West?
Although the European Union remains Serbia’s most important trade and political partner, China has become its largest investor. Beijing is involved in the construction of several huge infrastructure projects in Serbia, including the Belgrade–Budapest railway, which is part of the BRI. Upon completion, it will connect not only Serbia and the EU member Hungary, but also Hungary and Greece—where the Chinese group COSCO Shipping owns two–thirds of the port of Piraeus—via Serbia and North Macedonia.
It is, therefore, no surprise that Serbia was one of the three European countries—France and Hungary being two other stops—where Chinese President Xi Jinping visited during his recent European tour (5–10 May 2024). He was welcomed with “respect and love” in the Balkan nation where the vast majority of the population sees China as a friendly country, and supports Chinese investments in Serbia.
As a result of Xi’s visit to Belgrade, the two countries signed 28 various agreements, including memorandums of understanding between Serbian and Chinese media groups. Days before the Chinese leader’s trip to Serbia, the two nations’ delegations held a media and think–tank forum, as well as the China–Serbia Cultural Exchange Forum, which suggests that Beijing might be interested in increasing its “soft power” in the Balkan country.
Still, at this point, economic cooperation with Serbia seems to be the People’s Republic’s most important aspect in its strategy of strengthening Chinese presence in southeastern Europe. According to Chinese customs statistics, the total trade volume between China and Serbia in 2023 reached $4.35 billion, an increase of 23.7 percent compared to the previous year. The problem for Serbia, however, is the fact that its trade deficit with China remains very high, and that the largest exporters to China are Chinese–owned corporations operating in the Southeastern European country.
But in spite of that, in October 2023 the Serbian government signed a free–trade agreement with China, the first of its kind between China and a nation from Central and Eastern Europe. The EU reacted, warning Belgrade that the deal will “cease to be valid as soon as Serbia becomes a member of the European Union.” Given that the Balkan country is expected to remain stuck in the EU’s “eternal waiting room” for the foreseeable future, Belgrade does not seem too worried about the rhetoric coming from Brussels. Moreover, the fact that none of the EU officials have publicly opposed Serbia’s growing ties with China, indicates that the bloc tolerates Serbian ambitions of increased cooperation with Beijing.
According to Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, membership in the European Union remains the country’s “strategic goal,” although China, in his view, represents “a friendly state, a partner, and a reliable ally in defending Serbian territorial integrity.” Unlike most Western countries, and 22 out of 28 EU members, China does not recognize Kosovo’s 2008 unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. Such an approach allowed Beijing to position itself as Belgrade’s “comprehensive strategic partner” with whom Serbia aims to build a “shared future.”
As long as Serbia sits outside both the EU and NATO, it will have enough room to develop economic (and to a certain extent political) ties with other actors. China will undoubtedly seek to fill gaps Brussels left in the region, and strengthen its influence in the Balkans, especially in Serbia. Beijing likely sees the EU candidate as a new strategic hub for China, if not in Europe as a whole then at least in the Balkans.
In Serbia, China runs mines and factories, and has provided billions in loans to the Serbian government. As a result, in 2023 the Balkan country owed China almost $4 billion (or €3.7 billion), which is 12 times more than in 2013. Moreover, Serbia has few products that China needs, which means that Beijing, rather than Belgrade, will feel more benefits of the free–trade agreement.
From the Chinese perspective, its actions in Serbia were more than fruitful. Beijing is attracted to Serbia for its geostrategic location and proximity to the EU markets, where Chinese major economic interests lie. Success in Serbia can “break the ice” for Chinese ambitious plans in Europe. The Balkan nation serves as a good example.
The first bridge built by a Chinese company in Europe was in Serbia. The first highway built by a Chinese company in Europe was in Serbia. Serbia is the first European that purchased Chinese air defense systems and drones. Serbia is also the first nation in East and Central Europe that abolished visas entirely for Chinese travelers.
But whether other European countries will follow Serbia’s path, and increase economic ties with Beijing, will almost certainly depend on future relations between the United States and China, as well as on a potential “new Cold War” that the Chinese authorities reportedly aim to avoid.
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Should the EU worry about China’s growing presence in Serbia?
Great Wall of China. Image by William Christen from Unsplash.
May 22, 2024
As Serbia aims to increase almost all forms of cooperation with China, Beijing sees the nation as a gateway to Europe. In fact, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit resulted in the signing of various agreements—bringing into question Serbia’s relations with the West, writes Nikola Mikovic.
S
urrounded by NATO and European Union members, Serbia aims to increase almost all forms of cooperation with China. Beijing sees the Balkan nation as a gateway to Europe, and a significant point on the One Belt One Road (also known as the Belt and Road Initiative or BRI) route. But how will Belgrade’s growing ties with the People’s Republic affect Serbia’s relations with the West?
Although the European Union remains Serbia’s most important trade and political partner, China has become its largest investor. Beijing is involved in the construction of several huge infrastructure projects in Serbia, including the Belgrade–Budapest railway, which is part of the BRI. Upon completion, it will connect not only Serbia and the EU member Hungary, but also Hungary and Greece—where the Chinese group COSCO Shipping owns two–thirds of the port of Piraeus—via Serbia and North Macedonia.
It is, therefore, no surprise that Serbia was one of the three European countries—France and Hungary being two other stops—where Chinese President Xi Jinping visited during his recent European tour (5–10 May 2024). He was welcomed with “respect and love” in the Balkan nation where the vast majority of the population sees China as a friendly country, and supports Chinese investments in Serbia.
As a result of Xi’s visit to Belgrade, the two countries signed 28 various agreements, including memorandums of understanding between Serbian and Chinese media groups. Days before the Chinese leader’s trip to Serbia, the two nations’ delegations held a media and think–tank forum, as well as the China–Serbia Cultural Exchange Forum, which suggests that Beijing might be interested in increasing its “soft power” in the Balkan country.
Still, at this point, economic cooperation with Serbia seems to be the People’s Republic’s most important aspect in its strategy of strengthening Chinese presence in southeastern Europe. According to Chinese customs statistics, the total trade volume between China and Serbia in 2023 reached $4.35 billion, an increase of 23.7 percent compared to the previous year. The problem for Serbia, however, is the fact that its trade deficit with China remains very high, and that the largest exporters to China are Chinese–owned corporations operating in the Southeastern European country.
But in spite of that, in October 2023 the Serbian government signed a free–trade agreement with China, the first of its kind between China and a nation from Central and Eastern Europe. The EU reacted, warning Belgrade that the deal will “cease to be valid as soon as Serbia becomes a member of the European Union.” Given that the Balkan country is expected to remain stuck in the EU’s “eternal waiting room” for the foreseeable future, Belgrade does not seem too worried about the rhetoric coming from Brussels. Moreover, the fact that none of the EU officials have publicly opposed Serbia’s growing ties with China, indicates that the bloc tolerates Serbian ambitions of increased cooperation with Beijing.
According to Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic, membership in the European Union remains the country’s “strategic goal,” although China, in his view, represents “a friendly state, a partner, and a reliable ally in defending Serbian territorial integrity.” Unlike most Western countries, and 22 out of 28 EU members, China does not recognize Kosovo’s 2008 unilaterally declared independence from Serbia. Such an approach allowed Beijing to position itself as Belgrade’s “comprehensive strategic partner” with whom Serbia aims to build a “shared future.”
As long as Serbia sits outside both the EU and NATO, it will have enough room to develop economic (and to a certain extent political) ties with other actors. China will undoubtedly seek to fill gaps Brussels left in the region, and strengthen its influence in the Balkans, especially in Serbia. Beijing likely sees the EU candidate as a new strategic hub for China, if not in Europe as a whole then at least in the Balkans.
In Serbia, China runs mines and factories, and has provided billions in loans to the Serbian government. As a result, in 2023 the Balkan country owed China almost $4 billion (or €3.7 billion), which is 12 times more than in 2013. Moreover, Serbia has few products that China needs, which means that Beijing, rather than Belgrade, will feel more benefits of the free–trade agreement.
From the Chinese perspective, its actions in Serbia were more than fruitful. Beijing is attracted to Serbia for its geostrategic location and proximity to the EU markets, where Chinese major economic interests lie. Success in Serbia can “break the ice” for Chinese ambitious plans in Europe. The Balkan nation serves as a good example.
The first bridge built by a Chinese company in Europe was in Serbia. The first highway built by a Chinese company in Europe was in Serbia. Serbia is the first European that purchased Chinese air defense systems and drones. Serbia is also the first nation in East and Central Europe that abolished visas entirely for Chinese travelers.
But whether other European countries will follow Serbia’s path, and increase economic ties with Beijing, will almost certainly depend on future relations between the United States and China, as well as on a potential “new Cold War” that the Chinese authorities reportedly aim to avoid.
