he UN is currently working to avert a major disaster in the Red Sea, according to a plan we explained in an article with the Diplomatic Courier in 2020, and we thought it was worth sharing the whole story. Five years ago, a source from our investigation into oil and fuel crimes alerted us to concern regarding the FSO SAFER, a decaying oil tanker converted to a storage and offloading facility holding over 1.1 million barrels of oil just off the Red Sea coast of Yemen. The vessel had become a hostage of the war, minimally crewed, and already passed its long-delayed decommissioning. If it spilled its cargo, the Red Sea would experience a catastrophic event more than four times the size of EXXON VALDEZ in 1989—the disaster that ironically led to laws which banned constructing vessels in the way that the SAFER was built back in 1976.
When we first learned of the situation in 2018 there was little attention paid to the SAFER dilemma—other than an excellent exposé by the Conflict Environment Observatory. Concerned over this lack of attention, we discreetly shared what we knew about the issue with government officials for almost a year, but saw no progress on resolving the potential of a catastrophic spill. So we published our first piece in April 2019, explaining for the first time in an open source how the SAFER not only might break up and sink but could also explode on account of oxygen buildup in the vessel’s storage tanks. Then we published another piece gaming out the potential disaster, and in the process built the trust of sources and relevant professionals, all committed to seeing the Red Sea and the people who live alongside it become safe from the growing threat posed by the SAFER.
Celebrating Tangible Progress on the FSO Safer
The attention those pieces drew led to years of articles, interviews, and briefings, and a lot of behind-the-scenes work to try to find a solution to the “massive floating bomb in the Red Sea.” Now there has been productive movement toward a solution. On June 9, video posted to Twitter showed the Boskalis team onboard the SAFER, preparing to finally pump the long-distressed cargo off the long-decaying vessel. This video includes some of the only imagery from onboard the SAFER—other than what we were able to share in this 2019 article—since the start of the conflict in 2015. Finally seeing tangible momentum toward a resolution is cause for celebration, but any optimism must be tempered by the realization that much remains to be done, and much can still go wrong.
When then U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, extensively quoted our analysis at a UN Security Council meeting on 15 July 2020, there was a sense of urgency, but little sense of what might actually work. At the time, the UN was trying, unsuccessfully and repeatedly, to plan a mission just to visit and assess the SAFER, and the Houthis were consistently interfering with UN plans at the 11th hour. Shortly after Amb. Craft’s remarks, we put forward a proposal, first in the media, then in various fora, and spelled out in the article with the Diplomatic Courier, to move the oil off the SAFER onto a seaworthy tanker and leave it out at sea. The reason for this was that, in the summer of 2020, we were amid a global pandemic, the price of oil was at a record low, and the war in Yemen, specifically the battle for Marib, was raging. A major reason the Houthis were focused on Marib was that they saw it as critical to their economic future: it is home to Marib light crude oil. It is also connected via 272 miles of pipeline to the FSO SAFER. The battle for Marib and the future of the SAFER were therefore intertwined in the summer of 2020. Protecting the Red Sea and its people from a catastrophic spill, however, was a separate issue, which is why we proposed a plan that would avert that disaster while allowing for full resolution to be achieved later.
Praying for Follow Through
Three years later, we must not confuse a crucial but intermediate step with an accomplished mission. Simply transferring the oil from the SAFER to the NAUTICA—the vessel purchased by the UN to receive SAFER’s degrading cargo—cannot be the “solution.” Under the UN plan, this is just Phase 1, and the oil, once transferred, is only due to remain on the water for 6-9 months, pending another negotiation about what happens next. After being involved in this situation for five years and seeing how challenging it has been to get this far, it is hard to be confident that in 6-9 months the UN will be able not only to negotiate but also to execute a plan that is more controversial than merely transferring the oil from one vessel to a new one and leaving it in place. There are also still 17,000 barrels of oil in the pipeline that runs beneath the Red Sea from the coastal town of Ras Isa to the SAFER. In light of those challenges, we celebrate the current progress, but pray that the UN and its supporters do not lose interest once the immediate risk is mitigated.
After all, the point is not the SAFER itself. At issue is the health of the Red Sea’s marine environment and wellbeing of the tens of millions of people who live on its shores. The abundant living resources of the region—including ten unique species of fish and a coral system resistant to warming seas—along with the millions of human beings who rely on desalination of the Red Sea’s waters, won’t be made safe by simply transferring the SAFER’s cargo to the NAUTICA. Safety will only come when the NAUTICA moves out of the area and the offshore portion of the Marib-Ras Isa pipeline is drained and capped.
Many men and women risked their lives over the last five years to help bring this issue to light. Without their efforts, we would not even have this current momentum. If we are to honor their bravery, we must continue pressuring our political leaders to push toward a full resolution of this situation. In the meantime, we laud the hard and patient work of UN Humanitarian Coordinator David Gressly and his team, the expert assistance of Boskalis, and the generosity of the donors who have supported this initiative. We join others in praying that the current operation goes smoothly, that neither mines nor militants disrupt it, and that not a drop of oil makes its way into the Red Sea.
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Progress on FSO Safer is Welcome, but Follow Through Needed
Photo of conditions on the FSO Safer in 2019. Photo courtesy of the I.R. Consortium.
June 21, 2023
The UN is working to avert a disaster on the aging oil tanker FSO SAFER in the Red Sea off the coast in Yemen—following a plan laid out in a Diplomatic Courier article from 2020. The progress is welcome, but follow through is desperately needed, writes I.R. Consilium's Ian Ralby et al.
T
he UN is currently working to avert a major disaster in the Red Sea, according to a plan we explained in an article with the Diplomatic Courier in 2020, and we thought it was worth sharing the whole story. Five years ago, a source from our investigation into oil and fuel crimes alerted us to concern regarding the FSO SAFER, a decaying oil tanker converted to a storage and offloading facility holding over 1.1 million barrels of oil just off the Red Sea coast of Yemen. The vessel had become a hostage of the war, minimally crewed, and already passed its long-delayed decommissioning. If it spilled its cargo, the Red Sea would experience a catastrophic event more than four times the size of EXXON VALDEZ in 1989—the disaster that ironically led to laws which banned constructing vessels in the way that the SAFER was built back in 1976.
When we first learned of the situation in 2018 there was little attention paid to the SAFER dilemma—other than an excellent exposé by the Conflict Environment Observatory. Concerned over this lack of attention, we discreetly shared what we knew about the issue with government officials for almost a year, but saw no progress on resolving the potential of a catastrophic spill. So we published our first piece in April 2019, explaining for the first time in an open source how the SAFER not only might break up and sink but could also explode on account of oxygen buildup in the vessel’s storage tanks. Then we published another piece gaming out the potential disaster, and in the process built the trust of sources and relevant professionals, all committed to seeing the Red Sea and the people who live alongside it become safe from the growing threat posed by the SAFER.
Celebrating Tangible Progress on the FSO Safer
The attention those pieces drew led to years of articles, interviews, and briefings, and a lot of behind-the-scenes work to try to find a solution to the “massive floating bomb in the Red Sea.” Now there has been productive movement toward a solution. On June 9, video posted to Twitter showed the Boskalis team onboard the SAFER, preparing to finally pump the long-distressed cargo off the long-decaying vessel. This video includes some of the only imagery from onboard the SAFER—other than what we were able to share in this 2019 article—since the start of the conflict in 2015. Finally seeing tangible momentum toward a resolution is cause for celebration, but any optimism must be tempered by the realization that much remains to be done, and much can still go wrong.
When then U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, extensively quoted our analysis at a UN Security Council meeting on 15 July 2020, there was a sense of urgency, but little sense of what might actually work. At the time, the UN was trying, unsuccessfully and repeatedly, to plan a mission just to visit and assess the SAFER, and the Houthis were consistently interfering with UN plans at the 11th hour. Shortly after Amb. Craft’s remarks, we put forward a proposal, first in the media, then in various fora, and spelled out in the article with the Diplomatic Courier, to move the oil off the SAFER onto a seaworthy tanker and leave it out at sea. The reason for this was that, in the summer of 2020, we were amid a global pandemic, the price of oil was at a record low, and the war in Yemen, specifically the battle for Marib, was raging. A major reason the Houthis were focused on Marib was that they saw it as critical to their economic future: it is home to Marib light crude oil. It is also connected via 272 miles of pipeline to the FSO SAFER. The battle for Marib and the future of the SAFER were therefore intertwined in the summer of 2020. Protecting the Red Sea and its people from a catastrophic spill, however, was a separate issue, which is why we proposed a plan that would avert that disaster while allowing for full resolution to be achieved later.
Praying for Follow Through
Three years later, we must not confuse a crucial but intermediate step with an accomplished mission. Simply transferring the oil from the SAFER to the NAUTICA—the vessel purchased by the UN to receive SAFER’s degrading cargo—cannot be the “solution.” Under the UN plan, this is just Phase 1, and the oil, once transferred, is only due to remain on the water for 6-9 months, pending another negotiation about what happens next. After being involved in this situation for five years and seeing how challenging it has been to get this far, it is hard to be confident that in 6-9 months the UN will be able not only to negotiate but also to execute a plan that is more controversial than merely transferring the oil from one vessel to a new one and leaving it in place. There are also still 17,000 barrels of oil in the pipeline that runs beneath the Red Sea from the coastal town of Ras Isa to the SAFER. In light of those challenges, we celebrate the current progress, but pray that the UN and its supporters do not lose interest once the immediate risk is mitigated.
After all, the point is not the SAFER itself. At issue is the health of the Red Sea’s marine environment and wellbeing of the tens of millions of people who live on its shores. The abundant living resources of the region—including ten unique species of fish and a coral system resistant to warming seas—along with the millions of human beings who rely on desalination of the Red Sea’s waters, won’t be made safe by simply transferring the SAFER’s cargo to the NAUTICA. Safety will only come when the NAUTICA moves out of the area and the offshore portion of the Marib-Ras Isa pipeline is drained and capped.
Many men and women risked their lives over the last five years to help bring this issue to light. Without their efforts, we would not even have this current momentum. If we are to honor their bravery, we must continue pressuring our political leaders to push toward a full resolution of this situation. In the meantime, we laud the hard and patient work of UN Humanitarian Coordinator David Gressly and his team, the expert assistance of Boskalis, and the generosity of the donors who have supported this initiative. We join others in praying that the current operation goes smoothly, that neither mines nor militants disrupt it, and that not a drop of oil makes its way into the Red Sea.
