Nate Silver has not yet ventured into predicting cabinet picks and there is, so far, no equivalent of sabermetrics to evaluate a staff picks for an incoming administration. Until there is, it remains guesswork. Here are some predictions about how the next team of foreign policy principals might look:
Secretary of State: Tom Donilon
Tom Donilon, currently National Security Advisor, is a risky choice with John Kerry as the popular front runner. There are some positives to nominating Senator Kerry--he has decades of foreign policy experience, should survive the confirmation process safely, and (obviously) he wants the job. At the same time, the negatives are strong enough to probably not make it worth the trouble. Kerry could clash with Joe Biden for the President’s attention on foreign policy issues, and his nomination would open up his Senate seat with the strong probability that Scott Brown would give back the Republicans a seat that they lost in the election. Ambassador Susan Rice would also be a strong candidate but her confirmation process would be a gift to Senate Republicans interested in the Benghazi investigation. She could eventually survive the process, but the President might want to invest his political capital somewhere else.
Appointing Donilon would let the White House put “their man” in the State Department; he has a strong relationship with the President and experience with the foreign policy-making process, and has been behind some of the administration’s previous foreign policy initiatives like the Asian “pivot” and the response to the Arab Spring. His experience with Fannie Mae might make for some discomfort during the confirmation process but it was long enough ago that he should survive it.
National Security Advisor: Susan Rice
This is a crowded field. The National Security Advisor is more focused on managing the process and serving as the President’s conduit between the office and the agencies, so the job requires less stature than Secretary of State and more emphasis on management and keeping the President’s confidence. Michele Flournoy would be a great pick because her pragmatic approach to defense issues as earned her the respect of Democrats, Republicans, and those who worked with her. Denis McDonough has experience with the National Security Staff and could provide continuity if Donilon goes to the State Department. Tony Blinken has worked with Biden for years, is well-respected, and has been involved in every major foreign policy decision.
However, the best pick might be Ambassador Rice because of her close relationship with the President, her intellect, negotiations skills, and her experience on the National Security Council. At the same time, her reputation as an acid manager could be problematic if the President wants to change the culture among the National Security Staff. The role might be seen as a good consolation prize if the President wants to avoid a messy confirmation process, but Ambassador Rice is good for the job, consolation prize or not.
Secretary of Defense: Michele Flournoy
This position is basically up in the air between Ashton Carter and Michele Flournoy. Chuck Hagel’s name is mentioned occasionally, but he has been out of government for four years, has a reputation as being a poor manager, and has been tepid about his support for President Obama.
Choosing between Carter and Flournoy is difficult. Carter probably knows the Pentagon better than anyone and his skills would be well-suited to a Defense Department that will probably need to work under greater fiscal restraint, if not completely falling off the fiscal cliff. Flournoy would offer a different set of skills, but could be equally effective since her un-ideological approach and reputation for pragmatism could give the administration help in negotiating defense policy with Congress and around DC. Ideally, Flournoy could be named Secretary to manage the Pentagon’s external relations, and Carter could be her deputy to manage the Pentagon internally. That might be plausible, but Carter has already been the Department’s Number 2, and it is known that he’s interested in the top job. However, the President may also like the optics of nominating the first woman to be Defense Secretary. Either choice would be a strong pick, but Flournoy would give the administration’s defense policy better clout around Washington.
Director of National Intelligence: Denis McDonough
General David Petraeus received high marks for his work at the CIA (not to mention Iraq and Afghanistan) and there was no reason why he had not earned a promotion--until news of his resignation broke on November 9th. The field has now opened up considerably and names like Chuck Hagel, Howard Berman, or someone with career experience in the CIA become more likely. Denis McDonough would be an interesting replacement because of his close relationship to the President. He does not have much in terms of formal experience with intelligence, but his NSS experience combined with his understanding of how Obama thinks about foreign policy may give the President a bulwark in the intelligence community.
Photo: Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Under Defense Secretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, two possible candidates for Secretary of Defense in Obama's second term. DOD Photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo.
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Predicting the Next Foreign Policy Team
November 10, 2012
Nate Silver has not yet ventured into predicting cabinet picks and there is, so far, no equivalent of sabermetrics to evaluate a staff picks for an incoming administration. Until there is, it remains guesswork. Here are some predictions about how the next team of foreign policy principals might look:
Secretary of State: Tom Donilon
Tom Donilon, currently National Security Advisor, is a risky choice with John Kerry as the popular front runner. There are some positives to nominating Senator Kerry--he has decades of foreign policy experience, should survive the confirmation process safely, and (obviously) he wants the job. At the same time, the negatives are strong enough to probably not make it worth the trouble. Kerry could clash with Joe Biden for the President’s attention on foreign policy issues, and his nomination would open up his Senate seat with the strong probability that Scott Brown would give back the Republicans a seat that they lost in the election. Ambassador Susan Rice would also be a strong candidate but her confirmation process would be a gift to Senate Republicans interested in the Benghazi investigation. She could eventually survive the process, but the President might want to invest his political capital somewhere else.
Appointing Donilon would let the White House put “their man” in the State Department; he has a strong relationship with the President and experience with the foreign policy-making process, and has been behind some of the administration’s previous foreign policy initiatives like the Asian “pivot” and the response to the Arab Spring. His experience with Fannie Mae might make for some discomfort during the confirmation process but it was long enough ago that he should survive it.
National Security Advisor: Susan Rice
This is a crowded field. The National Security Advisor is more focused on managing the process and serving as the President’s conduit between the office and the agencies, so the job requires less stature than Secretary of State and more emphasis on management and keeping the President’s confidence. Michele Flournoy would be a great pick because her pragmatic approach to defense issues as earned her the respect of Democrats, Republicans, and those who worked with her. Denis McDonough has experience with the National Security Staff and could provide continuity if Donilon goes to the State Department. Tony Blinken has worked with Biden for years, is well-respected, and has been involved in every major foreign policy decision.
However, the best pick might be Ambassador Rice because of her close relationship with the President, her intellect, negotiations skills, and her experience on the National Security Council. At the same time, her reputation as an acid manager could be problematic if the President wants to change the culture among the National Security Staff. The role might be seen as a good consolation prize if the President wants to avoid a messy confirmation process, but Ambassador Rice is good for the job, consolation prize or not.
Secretary of Defense: Michele Flournoy
This position is basically up in the air between Ashton Carter and Michele Flournoy. Chuck Hagel’s name is mentioned occasionally, but he has been out of government for four years, has a reputation as being a poor manager, and has been tepid about his support for President Obama.
Choosing between Carter and Flournoy is difficult. Carter probably knows the Pentagon better than anyone and his skills would be well-suited to a Defense Department that will probably need to work under greater fiscal restraint, if not completely falling off the fiscal cliff. Flournoy would offer a different set of skills, but could be equally effective since her un-ideological approach and reputation for pragmatism could give the administration help in negotiating defense policy with Congress and around DC. Ideally, Flournoy could be named Secretary to manage the Pentagon’s external relations, and Carter could be her deputy to manage the Pentagon internally. That might be plausible, but Carter has already been the Department’s Number 2, and it is known that he’s interested in the top job. However, the President may also like the optics of nominating the first woman to be Defense Secretary. Either choice would be a strong pick, but Flournoy would give the administration’s defense policy better clout around Washington.
Director of National Intelligence: Denis McDonough
General David Petraeus received high marks for his work at the CIA (not to mention Iraq and Afghanistan) and there was no reason why he had not earned a promotion--until news of his resignation broke on November 9th. The field has now opened up considerably and names like Chuck Hagel, Howard Berman, or someone with career experience in the CIA become more likely. Denis McDonough would be an interesting replacement because of his close relationship to the President. He does not have much in terms of formal experience with intelligence, but his NSS experience combined with his understanding of how Obama thinks about foreign policy may give the President a bulwark in the intelligence community.
Photo: Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter and Under Defense Secretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, two possible candidates for Secretary of Defense in Obama's second term. DOD Photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo.
