Ongoing Concern Over the Asia-Pacific’s Maritime Heartland

The scene was certainly set as the 14th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue got underway in Singapore in the last days of May. The May 26^th release from the Chinese Ministry of National Defense of a Chinese Military Strategy white paper promoting the concept of “active defense” laid down an important marker. It directs the military to be “in line with the strategic requirement of offshore waters defense and open seas protection, the PLA Navy will gradually shift its focus from ‘offshore waters defense’ to the combination of ‘offshore waters defense’ with ‘open seas protection’ and build a combined, multi-functional and efficient marine combat force structure for joint operations.”   En route to Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter visited Pacific Command for the Change of Command Ceremony. He made the U.S. position on the South China Sea clear in that “there should be no mistake, the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world” and that “with its actions in the South China Sea, China is out of step with both international norms that underscore the Asia-Pacific’s security architecture, and the regional consensus in favor of a non-coercive approach to this and other long-standing disputes.” Following last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue where criticism from former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel described the Chinese pursuit of their claims in the South China Sea as destabilizing, unilateral actions forced PLA General Wang Guangzhong to depart from prepared remarks to rebut Hagel; there was concern that such palpable tension would be repeated this year.   Balance of Power   While more attention in recent weeks has focused on the scale of Chinese land reclamation in the South China Sea and the objective behind these efforts to build artificial islands, U.S. imagery was reported that showed the presence of two Chinese motorized artillery pieces on one of these artificial islands being built just a short time before Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong was to deliver his keynote speech. He reiterated the point that the U.S. “presence is welcome by the many regional countries who have benefitted from it, including Singapore.” However, he acknowledged the current shift underway with respect to strategic balances in Asia, principally seen in the growth of Chinese power. Certainly regional countries seek to benefit from the remarkable story of Chinese economic growth, with Singapore establishing itself as an offshore RMB hub outside of China with now some 3 trillion yuan being cleared each month. Prime Minister Lee reiterated how no country wants to have to choose between the U.S. and China. “We are glad that successive U.S. Administrations and Chinese leaderships have engaged, worked together and managed the problems that have come up, despite nationalistic pressures on both sides and inevitable tensions from time to time.”   In the first Plenary Session, Secretary Carter built upon his remarks in Hawaii earlier that week. He made his overarching theme clear which explained that “the United States wants a shared regional architecture that is strong enough, capable enough, and connected enough to rise and continue to rise in the future” and the U.S. “wants to protect the rights of all countries, whether large or small, to win, to rise, prosper, and determine their own destiny.” He described the positive trajectory of the region over the past seven decades and its growth story today as the fulcrum of the global economy which all countries can benefit from. However, he made it clear much more work remained to be done, describing how “it is incumbent upon all of us to make it better by reaffirming our long-standing rules and norms, strengthening our institutions, modernizing our alliances, enhancing our capabilities, and improving connectivity.”   It was not until the final stretch of his remarks that he raised the stability and security of the South China Sea, where he acknowledged that multiple claimants had developed outposts on disputed islands. But he detailed the dramatic gap between those existing facilities from multiple claimants and the Chinese efforts to reclaim over 2,000 acres over the last eighteen months, which by far exceeds the efforts of all other claimants combined. He expressed that the U.S. is “deeply concerned about the pace and scope of land reclamation in the South China Sea, the prospect of further militarization, as well as the potential for these activities to increase the risk of miscalculation or conflict among claimant states.” He closed his discussion of the South China Sea by stating that the U.S. seeks the peaceful resolution of all disputes, it will continue to protect freedom of navigation and overflight as those have been central to the regions rise, and that Chinese actions in the South China Sea are out of step with international rules and norms.   There were indications from delegates that they wanted to see more than rhetorical appeals from Secretary Carter, what many thus far have judged as being ineffective in halting Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. Senator John McCain, Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee headed a delegation of five U.S. Senate colleagues who all serve on the committee. In a press conference shortly after Secretary Carter spoke, he praised the speech and expressed how Asia-Pacific policy attracts broad, bipartisan support. Senator McCain then set a sharper tone saying that recent Chinese assertiveness was no accident. He described the approach as a “concerted effort to change the status quo in the region unilaterally, coercively, and in blatant disregard for the views of its neighbors” and that “China will likely continue with these destabilizing activities until it perceives that the costs of doing so outweigh the benefits.” He described Secretary Carter’s remarks on sailing and flying within the close proximity of those artificial islands as a commitment. “It is important that that commitment be maintained and there is no twelve-mile barrier around these reclaimed lands and to respect that would be de-facto recognition of what the Chinese are trying to achieve in these reclaimed lands.”   China Engages   2007 marked the first time China sent a senior military officer to take part and that could be seen as an important breakthrough for the Shangri-La Dialogue. In 2011 the participation of Chinese Defense Minister General Liang Guanglie marks the only instance where the Chinese delegation was led at the full ministerial level. During the launch of an IISS publication, a Chinese journalist asked why the Chinese representative always speaks on the final day and Dr. Tim Huxley, Executive Director IISS-Asia explained how they seek and welcome full ministerial participation annually from China to engage at that level; it is such a level of participation that would lead to them reconsidering the order of speakers. This year’s delegation was led by Admiral Sun Jianguo Deputy Chief of General Staff, People’s Liberation Army whose address was entitled “Jointly Safeguard Peace and Build a Secure Asia-Pacific Region.” With much discussion in the days leading up to the conference and in previous sessions, certainly the land reclamation in South China Sea would be a major issue to be addressed. He expressed plainly that “there are no changes in China’s claims in the South China Sea, no changes in China’s position on peaceful resolution of the relevant disputes through negotiation and consultation, no changes in China’s will to safeguard the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea, and no changes in China’s goal to uphold peace and stability in the South China Sea.”   The tone was certainly different from last year where General Wang’s approach was much more confrontational. Admiral Sun appeared on a panel with Germany’s Federal Minister of Defense Dr. Ursula von der Leyen and New Zealand’s Minister of Defense Gerry Brownlee. Not surprisingly at the conclusion of the prepared remarks, the overwhelming majority of the questions were directed at Admiral Sun. However, during the approximately ten minutes he was given to respond to perhaps a dozen questions, he chose not to directly respond to any of them. Instead, multiple times he directed questioners to revisit his remarks and he reiterated well-known policy positions on particular issues. In fact, as could plainly be seen on the large screen, he was flipping through a large binder of briefing materials with tabs denoting sections on particular issues such as North Korea. Depending on one’s perspective this could be seen as the Chinese being uninterested in addressing the concerns of other countries in light of land reclamation activities. In his remarks Admiral Sun expressed that “at present, the situation in the South China Sea is on the whole peaceful and stable, and there has never been an issue with the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.”   Moving Forward   While the new whitepaper did list the Shangri-La Dialogue as a mechanism that China will continue to participate in to further security cooperation, the manner of its engagement this year did little to reassure those who expressed concerns over the expansive land reclamation activities. Importantly, the white paper stated that “the Chinese military will continue to host multilateral events like the Xiangshan Forum, striving to establish a new framework for security and cooperation conducive to peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region.” As General Chang Wanquan, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense gave the keynote at the 5^th Xiangshan Forum in November 2014, the importance attached to the event by the Chinese could be seen in it being upgraded from a Track-2 Dialogue to Track-1.5 event. This would track with other Chinese efforts to have institutions and forums they see as more in-line with the growth of their national power. It will be interesting to see what the after action reporting is like from Chinese delegates upon returning to Beijing and how this impacts their level of engagement at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2016.   Secretary Carter’s speech, a major address just a few months after he took up the position, was widely praised. Beyond China, he expressed how multiple claimants had built structures on islands, but that the reclamation activity over the past eighteen months taken up by the Chinese was staggering in comparison. In response to a question he clarified that recent actions taken by China were not only objectionable to the U.S., but to many other countries as well. Further explaining, he stated that “this kind of behavior, if it does not stop, one of the consequences of that will be the continued coalescing of concerned nations around the region and around the world.” As the Shangri-La Dialogue came to an end, Secretary Carter travelled to Hanoi to sign a Joint Vision Statement on Defense Relations with his Vietnamese counterpart Defense Minister General Phung Quang Thanh. Senator McCain had travelled there the week prior and in Singapore he expressed that "for our part, we'd like to set conditions for a gradual removal of our lethal arms embargo on Vietnam as soon as possible." Separately, Secretary Carter announced the launch of a new Southeast Asia Maritime Security Initiative with Congress having authorized $425 million dollars to support these capacity-building efforts in the maritime domain. Carter continued on from Vietnam to meet with Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar to sign the new US–India Defense Framework that will guide the bilateral defense relationship over the coming decade.   The world’s two largest economies remain considerably divided as the U.S. continues to stand with its allies and partners in the region and the Chinese appear determined to continue their tremendous pace of land reclamation. As Admiral Sun made clear, in their view thus far “China has exercised enormous restraint.” This makes the South China Sea the vital maritime heartland to follow closely.      Justin Goldman is an Associate Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and a Pacific Forum CSIS Young Leader.