ver since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Belarus supported the Kremlin’s war efforts by allowing Russian military to use Belarusian territory for attacks on its southern neighbor. Although the majority of Belarusian citizens do not support their country’s participation in the Kremlin’s military adventure, there are indications that Minsk is preparing for an escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense recently said that Russia considers the invasion of the Belarusian army into Ukraine as a possible scenarios. However, at this point Belarus does not have enough troops for a potential incursion. Despite this, Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the President of Ukraine, claims that Russia has been intending to involve Belarus in the ongoing war to cover its lack of military capabilities.
According to Ukrainian reports, at the end of June the military commissariats of the southern Belarus’ Brest and Gomel oblasts were considering different ways to conduct a covert mobilization of the local population. In addition, on July 12, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko who has been responsible for the mobilization in the country. The move came almost a month after Belarus begun its mobilization drills and days after Belarusian senior officers sent reportedly sent an open letter to the country’s leader, warning him that sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine would amount to "pure suicide."
For his part, Lukashenko insists that the Belarusian army will not get involved in the Ukraine war unless Kyiv attacks Belarus. He recently accused Ukraine of firing missiles at Belarus’ military posts, saying that Belarusian military used Pantsir anti-air systems and intercepted all the missiles. Given that Lukashenko provided no evidence for that claim, his rhetoric could be interpreted as part of preparations of the Belarusian society for a potential Belarus’ direct involvement in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Instead, Minsk accuses the West of “trying to attack Russia through both Ukraine and Belarus.” According to Lukashenko, the West is “trying to sow chaos and destroy” his country.
"Unfortunately, such a policy of the West is bringing the world closer to the abyss of a big war where there will be no winner," Lukashenko said.
It is worth remembering that in 2015 the Belarusian leader warned that the Donbass war, that erupted in 2014, “could have severe consequences for the entire world.”
“If we do not stop the bloodshed in Europe, this fratricidal slaughter, if we allow the escalation of this conflict, it will be ‘hot’ in the entire civilized world. This will mean another step toward a global conflict, and perhaps toward another world war, this time in the center of the civilized advanced world,” Lukashenko said at the UN in 2015.
Seven years later, Lukashenko accuses Poland and other NATO members of allegedly aiming to seize western Ukraine, a move which would, in his view, force Belarus to “fight so that that part of Ukraine is not chopped off.” Although the Belarusian president often portrays Poland as a huge threat to Belarussian national security, his government has recently abolished visa requirements for Polish nationals in a bid to foster "good neighborly relations.” His warmongering rhetoric, thus, likely serves to demonstrate his loyalty to the Kremlin, while in reality Minsk seeks to maintain some form of “multi-vector” foreign policy.
However, given Belarus’ heavily dependence on Russia and the fact that Russian troops are still on the ground in the former Soviet republic, Lukashenko does not seem to have too much room for political maneuvering. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that the Western sanctions—imposed on both Russia and Belarus—are “pushing the two countries to speed up the integration process,” Lukashenko has not made any practical steps that would strengthen this process.
Regardless of Russia’s strong influence in Belarus, Minsk is still attempting to preserve remnants of the country’s sovereignty. However, some Ukrainian analysts believe that Lukashenko does not have full control over the Belarusian Armed Forces and that their military drills near the Ukrainian border are being held under the Russian supervision.
In response to Belarusian military exercises, the Ukrainian army has started placing mines on the border with Belarus in order to prevent a potential invasion from the north. Moreover, the authorities in western Ukraine’s Lviv have reportedly started preparing defense strategies for a possible Belarussian attack.
For the foreseeable future, Belarus is expected to continue supporting Russia’s actions in the eastern European country—albeit without directly entering the war. In the long-term, however, false flag attacks that could serve as a pretext for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine. Whether the escalation will take place or not will likely be decided in the Kremlin, rather than in Minsk.
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Is Belarus preparing to invade Ukraine?
Minsk, Belarus. Photo by Darya Tryfanava via Unsplash.
July 19, 2022
Belarusian authorities are supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but have yet to deploy troops to its neighboring country. Kyiv, however, fears that Minsk could decide to become directly involved in Moscow’s so-called “special military operation” and invade western Ukraine, writes Nikola Mikovic.
E
ver since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Belarus supported the Kremlin’s war efforts by allowing Russian military to use Belarusian territory for attacks on its southern neighbor. Although the majority of Belarusian citizens do not support their country’s participation in the Kremlin’s military adventure, there are indications that Minsk is preparing for an escalation in the Ukraine conflict.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense recently said that Russia considers the invasion of the Belarusian army into Ukraine as a possible scenarios. However, at this point Belarus does not have enough troops for a potential incursion. Despite this, Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the President of Ukraine, claims that Russia has been intending to involve Belarus in the ongoing war to cover its lack of military capabilities.
According to Ukrainian reports, at the end of June the military commissariats of the southern Belarus’ Brest and Gomel oblasts were considering different ways to conduct a covert mobilization of the local population. In addition, on July 12, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko fired Major General Alexander Shkirenko who has been responsible for the mobilization in the country. The move came almost a month after Belarus begun its mobilization drills and days after Belarusian senior officers sent reportedly sent an open letter to the country’s leader, warning him that sending Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine would amount to "pure suicide."
For his part, Lukashenko insists that the Belarusian army will not get involved in the Ukraine war unless Kyiv attacks Belarus. He recently accused Ukraine of firing missiles at Belarus’ military posts, saying that Belarusian military used Pantsir anti-air systems and intercepted all the missiles. Given that Lukashenko provided no evidence for that claim, his rhetoric could be interpreted as part of preparations of the Belarusian society for a potential Belarus’ direct involvement in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Instead, Minsk accuses the West of “trying to attack Russia through both Ukraine and Belarus.” According to Lukashenko, the West is “trying to sow chaos and destroy” his country.
"Unfortunately, such a policy of the West is bringing the world closer to the abyss of a big war where there will be no winner," Lukashenko said.
It is worth remembering that in 2015 the Belarusian leader warned that the Donbass war, that erupted in 2014, “could have severe consequences for the entire world.”
“If we do not stop the bloodshed in Europe, this fratricidal slaughter, if we allow the escalation of this conflict, it will be ‘hot’ in the entire civilized world. This will mean another step toward a global conflict, and perhaps toward another world war, this time in the center of the civilized advanced world,” Lukashenko said at the UN in 2015.
Seven years later, Lukashenko accuses Poland and other NATO members of allegedly aiming to seize western Ukraine, a move which would, in his view, force Belarus to “fight so that that part of Ukraine is not chopped off.” Although the Belarusian president often portrays Poland as a huge threat to Belarussian national security, his government has recently abolished visa requirements for Polish nationals in a bid to foster "good neighborly relations.” His warmongering rhetoric, thus, likely serves to demonstrate his loyalty to the Kremlin, while in reality Minsk seeks to maintain some form of “multi-vector” foreign policy.
However, given Belarus’ heavily dependence on Russia and the fact that Russian troops are still on the ground in the former Soviet republic, Lukashenko does not seem to have too much room for political maneuvering. Even though Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that the Western sanctions—imposed on both Russia and Belarus—are “pushing the two countries to speed up the integration process,” Lukashenko has not made any practical steps that would strengthen this process.
Regardless of Russia’s strong influence in Belarus, Minsk is still attempting to preserve remnants of the country’s sovereignty. However, some Ukrainian analysts believe that Lukashenko does not have full control over the Belarusian Armed Forces and that their military drills near the Ukrainian border are being held under the Russian supervision.
In response to Belarusian military exercises, the Ukrainian army has started placing mines on the border with Belarus in order to prevent a potential invasion from the north. Moreover, the authorities in western Ukraine’s Lviv have reportedly started preparing defense strategies for a possible Belarussian attack.
For the foreseeable future, Belarus is expected to continue supporting Russia’s actions in the eastern European country—albeit without directly entering the war. In the long-term, however, false flag attacks that could serve as a pretext for a Belarusian invasion of Ukraine. Whether the escalation will take place or not will likely be decided in the Kremlin, rather than in Minsk.
