n late January 2024, Pakistan and Iran clashed in Balochistan due to domestic factors like fear of terrorism. Many policymakers in the region were afraid the Pakistan–Iran crisis could further increase bilateral tensions, especially after the ongoing Pakistani political stalemate. A full–scale conflict could also significantly affect Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. China, for example, made several efforts to create an anti–U.S. axis, which comprised Pakistan and Iran, among others. On the other side, Washington maintains an open channel of communication with Islamabad on some national security issues like terrorism that he doesn't want to lose.
On 16 January, Iran attacked the Pakistani area of Balochistan, targeting the alleged strongholds of the terrorist and separatist group Jaish al–Adl. Two days later, Pakistan responded by targeting the Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front's bases in the Iranian territory. These two terrorist organizations operate to achieve secession of Balochistan from Pakistan. Both countries declared they only attacked terrorist objectives while reporting that they suffered civilian casualties from the other side's aggression. On 17 January at the World Economic Forum, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir–Abdollahian stated that his country did not target civilians in the raids. Its Pakistan counterpart later replied that Tehran made an illegal and unacceptable act.
The Baloch people live in an area comprised of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, and despite this zone being rich in natural resources, they live with deplorable living conditions. Over the years, several separatist and terrorist movements have flourished, aiming to overthrow the governments they are subjected to.
The situation in Balochistan could have larger consequences for Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran and Pakistan are embroiled in an economic slowdown fostered by Western sanctions in the former and political turmoils in the latter. Tehran is also conducting a multiple–front war against Israel and its U.S. ally, which is a significant burden on its public finances. For example, Iran is backing some Shiite militias that were responsible for the attacks against the U.S. troops in Iraq months ago—forcing President Biden to respond.
Iran and Pakistan are also cautious about national security threats coming from terrorist groups, whether they are Islamist or Balochi. Early this year, for example, Iran suffered a brutal terrorist attack from ISIS that killed at least 84 people. Pakistan is experiencing a similar situation. In July last year, an ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed more than 50 people in the Northwestern Bajaur district. According to the latest data, more than 1,500 people in Pakistan died because of terrorist aggression in 2023.
The Iranian attacks came just before the Pakistani general elections on 8 February 2024, which resulted in a political stalemate. The party of the former Prime Minister Imran Khan, now in jail due to a corruption case, obtained the majority of the seats, even if its representatives were forced to run as independents by a sentence of the Pakistani Supreme Court in early January. Khan—from jail, using an AI–generated video—and his principal opponent, Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League, declared themselves winners of the election, resulting in few chances of forming a government in the short term.
It is hard to predict how the ongoing Pakistan political crisis will affect its ties with Iran in the future. However, the mutual airstrikes already impacted regional affairs. Soon after the clashes outbreak, policymakers in and outside the Middle East and South Asia feared the current Gaza war could further enlarge, encompassing new countries historically alien to the Israel–Palestine conflict. The Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Pakistan in late January to find a peaceful solution. The meeting was warm, and both countries agreed to improve ties, expand security cooperation, and establish free trade economic zones near their border to enhance bilateral commerce. As a result, a full–scale war scenario seems very unlikely for now.
China played a significant role in mediating the crisis. Over the last decade, China has expanded cooperation with Pakistan and Iran within the Belt and Road Initiative framework and its Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Some sources in Ankara and Islamabad reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tried to convince both countries to halt hostilities and boost bilateral security cooperation.
Improved ties between Tehran and Islamabad could impact Middle Eastern and Asian diplomacy. Many inside Pakistan have publicly supported the idea of an anti–U.S. coalition composed of Russia, Iran, China, and Pakistan, but restoring eroded trust with Tehran will not be easy. This is because Pakistan still maintains good ties with the U.S., and the current political stalemate will make profound changes in foreign policy very complex in the short term.
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Iran–Pakistan: From a foiled war to cooperation?
February 23, 2024
Just over a month ago, Iran and Pakistan appeared to be on the brink of war. The crisis has passed, in part due to Chinese mediating, but the future remains uncertain as Pakistani and Iranian diplomats seek to improve ties, writes Elia Preto Martini.
I
n late January 2024, Pakistan and Iran clashed in Balochistan due to domestic factors like fear of terrorism. Many policymakers in the region were afraid the Pakistan–Iran crisis could further increase bilateral tensions, especially after the ongoing Pakistani political stalemate. A full–scale conflict could also significantly affect Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. China, for example, made several efforts to create an anti–U.S. axis, which comprised Pakistan and Iran, among others. On the other side, Washington maintains an open channel of communication with Islamabad on some national security issues like terrorism that he doesn't want to lose.
On 16 January, Iran attacked the Pakistani area of Balochistan, targeting the alleged strongholds of the terrorist and separatist group Jaish al–Adl. Two days later, Pakistan responded by targeting the Balochistan Liberation Army and Balochistan Liberation Front's bases in the Iranian territory. These two terrorist organizations operate to achieve secession of Balochistan from Pakistan. Both countries declared they only attacked terrorist objectives while reporting that they suffered civilian casualties from the other side's aggression. On 17 January at the World Economic Forum, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir–Abdollahian stated that his country did not target civilians in the raids. Its Pakistan counterpart later replied that Tehran made an illegal and unacceptable act.
The Baloch people live in an area comprised of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq, and despite this zone being rich in natural resources, they live with deplorable living conditions. Over the years, several separatist and terrorist movements have flourished, aiming to overthrow the governments they are subjected to.
The situation in Balochistan could have larger consequences for Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran and Pakistan are embroiled in an economic slowdown fostered by Western sanctions in the former and political turmoils in the latter. Tehran is also conducting a multiple–front war against Israel and its U.S. ally, which is a significant burden on its public finances. For example, Iran is backing some Shiite militias that were responsible for the attacks against the U.S. troops in Iraq months ago—forcing President Biden to respond.
Iran and Pakistan are also cautious about national security threats coming from terrorist groups, whether they are Islamist or Balochi. Early this year, for example, Iran suffered a brutal terrorist attack from ISIS that killed at least 84 people. Pakistan is experiencing a similar situation. In July last year, an ISIS affiliate claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed more than 50 people in the Northwestern Bajaur district. According to the latest data, more than 1,500 people in Pakistan died because of terrorist aggression in 2023.
The Iranian attacks came just before the Pakistani general elections on 8 February 2024, which resulted in a political stalemate. The party of the former Prime Minister Imran Khan, now in jail due to a corruption case, obtained the majority of the seats, even if its representatives were forced to run as independents by a sentence of the Pakistani Supreme Court in early January. Khan—from jail, using an AI–generated video—and his principal opponent, Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League, declared themselves winners of the election, resulting in few chances of forming a government in the short term.
It is hard to predict how the ongoing Pakistan political crisis will affect its ties with Iran in the future. However, the mutual airstrikes already impacted regional affairs. Soon after the clashes outbreak, policymakers in and outside the Middle East and South Asia feared the current Gaza war could further enlarge, encompassing new countries historically alien to the Israel–Palestine conflict. The Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Pakistan in late January to find a peaceful solution. The meeting was warm, and both countries agreed to improve ties, expand security cooperation, and establish free trade economic zones near their border to enhance bilateral commerce. As a result, a full–scale war scenario seems very unlikely for now.
China played a significant role in mediating the crisis. Over the last decade, China has expanded cooperation with Pakistan and Iran within the Belt and Road Initiative framework and its Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Some sources in Ankara and Islamabad reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi tried to convince both countries to halt hostilities and boost bilateral security cooperation.
Improved ties between Tehran and Islamabad could impact Middle Eastern and Asian diplomacy. Many inside Pakistan have publicly supported the idea of an anti–U.S. coalition composed of Russia, Iran, China, and Pakistan, but restoring eroded trust with Tehran will not be easy. This is because Pakistan still maintains good ties with the U.S., and the current political stalemate will make profound changes in foreign policy very complex in the short term.
