Although Iran has claimed that the aims of its nuclear program are peaceful, these statements have not been viewed as credible in the West. These fears worsened in 2012 after reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran was producing uranium enriched at a 20 percent level. As talks regarding Iranian uranium enrichment continues, the dilemma that arises is how much of uranium enrichment should be allowed by the United States.
Even more concerning to the United States and its Western allies is the likelihood that Syria could come under Iran’s nuclear umbrella, whether by hosting command and control facilities or through Iran’s development of delivery systems which could be nuclear capable (particularly missiles) that provide extended nuclear deterrence. Syria desires access to weapons of mass destruction because it views its neighbors Turkey and Israel as staunch adversaries. According to Antony Cordesman of Centre for Strategic and International Studies, nuclear weapons would provide Syria some kind of “parity” with Israel and “some status within the region.” Turkey is under the NATO nuclear umbrella, and though Israel’s official nuclear status continues to be ambiguous, it is widely believed to possess numerous nuclear weapons.
Syria first obtained chemical weapons in the early 1980s to counter the perceived Israeli threat, but these weapons have more recently been used by Damascus to fight the ongoing civil war against its own people. And despite being party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and supporting a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East, Syria still has ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons. In 2011, UN investigators identified an unknown complex in Syria which led them to believe that Syria worked closely with A.Q. Khan of Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons. However, reports suggest that such plans of developing nuclear weapons could have been abandoned by Syria after Israel destroyed their plutonium production reactor.
Moreover, according to NTI Reports, Syria’s weak industrial infrastructure, poor scientific capabilities, and lack of trained engineers needed to run a “weapons-oriented program” require it to depend on external assistance. While Syria could look towards various states for assistance (like Pakistan, China, or Russia) in building a nuclear program to compete with its neighbors, living under the Iranian nuclear umbrella would be more technologically and economically feasible. It would also allow them a way around violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Meanwhile, Iran has been interested in providing a security umbrella to other Muslim states in the Middle East, and it already has a long-standing commitment to sustain its influence over Damascus. Because Iran has always backed Syrian President Bashar Assad, Syria could be incorporated under Tehran’s nuclear umbrella. Syria is also advantageous for Iran since it makes it easy to transfer arms to anti-Israel forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
News reports have indicated Syria is developing improved versions of Khaybar1 missiles under Iranian supervision and is also replacing liquid-fuel missiles with solid-fuel missiles for use by Hezbollah.
According to Yaakov Peri, a former head of Shin Bet and current Israeli Minister of Science and Technology, Iran’s incorporation of Syria under its nuclear umbrella could make Syria a “launch pad for terrorist ideology and activity” that would threaten Israel and the broader region. Israel is particularly concerned about nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Hezbollah after reports suggested that Assad is “facilitating the transit of advanced Iranian arms” to the group.
Would Iran defy a deal from the P5+1 negotiations? Even though President Rouhani aspires to improve the economy of Iran and also improve Tehran’s relations with the international community, other Iranian leaders have different views about Iran’s nuclear program. Although Iran has positively engaged in the nuclear negotiations, there are still tensions, including a new Republican-led Congress in the U.S. threatening harsher sanctions (and occasionally using rhetoric about bombing Iranian nuclear facilities).
Iran’s efforts to strengthen its regional hegemony in the region could result in Tehran providing extended nuclear deterrence to its neighbors in the Middle East. However, at this point, the United States should feel the urgency of ensuring that Tehran does not develop nuclear weapons since such weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist organizations, such as ISIS, in Syria. If Iran extends a nuclear umbrella to Syria, it will only increase the pace of the arms race in the Middle East.
Debalina Ghoshal is an Associate Fellow for the Centre For Air Power Studies in New Delhi.
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If Iran Develops Nuclear Weapons, Syria Could Come Under its Nuclear Umbrella
February 6, 2015
Although Iran has claimed that the aims of its nuclear program are peaceful, these statements have not been viewed as credible in the West. These fears worsened in 2012 after reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed Iran was producing uranium enriched at a 20 percent level. As talks regarding Iranian uranium enrichment continues, the dilemma that arises is how much of uranium enrichment should be allowed by the United States.
Even more concerning to the United States and its Western allies is the likelihood that Syria could come under Iran’s nuclear umbrella, whether by hosting command and control facilities or through Iran’s development of delivery systems which could be nuclear capable (particularly missiles) that provide extended nuclear deterrence. Syria desires access to weapons of mass destruction because it views its neighbors Turkey and Israel as staunch adversaries. According to Antony Cordesman of Centre for Strategic and International Studies, nuclear weapons would provide Syria some kind of “parity” with Israel and “some status within the region.” Turkey is under the NATO nuclear umbrella, and though Israel’s official nuclear status continues to be ambiguous, it is widely believed to possess numerous nuclear weapons.
Syria first obtained chemical weapons in the early 1980s to counter the perceived Israeli threat, but these weapons have more recently been used by Damascus to fight the ongoing civil war against its own people. And despite being party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and supporting a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East, Syria still has ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons. In 2011, UN investigators identified an unknown complex in Syria which led them to believe that Syria worked closely with A.Q. Khan of Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons. However, reports suggest that such plans of developing nuclear weapons could have been abandoned by Syria after Israel destroyed their plutonium production reactor.
Moreover, according to NTI Reports, Syria’s weak industrial infrastructure, poor scientific capabilities, and lack of trained engineers needed to run a “weapons-oriented program” require it to depend on external assistance. While Syria could look towards various states for assistance (like Pakistan, China, or Russia) in building a nuclear program to compete with its neighbors, living under the Iranian nuclear umbrella would be more technologically and economically feasible. It would also allow them a way around violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Meanwhile, Iran has been interested in providing a security umbrella to other Muslim states in the Middle East, and it already has a long-standing commitment to sustain its influence over Damascus. Because Iran has always backed Syrian President Bashar Assad, Syria could be incorporated under Tehran’s nuclear umbrella. Syria is also advantageous for Iran since it makes it easy to transfer arms to anti-Israel forces like Hezbollah in Lebanon.
News reports have indicated Syria is developing improved versions of Khaybar1 missiles under Iranian supervision and is also replacing liquid-fuel missiles with solid-fuel missiles for use by Hezbollah.
According to Yaakov Peri, a former head of Shin Bet and current Israeli Minister of Science and Technology, Iran’s incorporation of Syria under its nuclear umbrella could make Syria a “launch pad for terrorist ideology and activity” that would threaten Israel and the broader region. Israel is particularly concerned about nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Hezbollah after reports suggested that Assad is “facilitating the transit of advanced Iranian arms” to the group.
Would Iran defy a deal from the P5+1 negotiations? Even though President Rouhani aspires to improve the economy of Iran and also improve Tehran’s relations with the international community, other Iranian leaders have different views about Iran’s nuclear program. Although Iran has positively engaged in the nuclear negotiations, there are still tensions, including a new Republican-led Congress in the U.S. threatening harsher sanctions (and occasionally using rhetoric about bombing Iranian nuclear facilities).
Iran’s efforts to strengthen its regional hegemony in the region could result in Tehran providing extended nuclear deterrence to its neighbors in the Middle East. However, at this point, the United States should feel the urgency of ensuring that Tehran does not develop nuclear weapons since such weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist organizations, such as ISIS, in Syria. If Iran extends a nuclear umbrella to Syria, it will only increase the pace of the arms race in the Middle East.
Debalina Ghoshal is an Associate Fellow for the Centre For Air Power Studies in New Delhi.
