he Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) has released an extensive report on the biggest trends in global terrorism over the last few years. Their Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2022 measured the effects of terrorism on 163 countries, accounting for most of the world’s population. The report analyzes terrorism patterns and activities throughout the world — examining trends in the incidence and deadliness of terrorist attacks, resilience and longevity of terrorist groups, and societal factors that appear to correlate with incidences of terrorism.
Overview of Terrorism Across the World
The IEP defines terrorism for their GTI report as an established threat, usually through the use of violence, against some form of authority. The report identifies the motivations behind these threats as attempts to promote “a political, religious, or ideological message to a group larger than the victim group, by generating fear and so altering (or attempting to alter) the behavior of the larger group.” The IEP’s specifications for what could be considered terrorist activity specifically exclude acts of warfare, matters of civil unrest, and attacks that are committed by those suffering from mental disabilities. These exclusions are an attempt to further refine what exactly constitutes a terrorist act – a welcome development as the label is increasingly mobilized to describe a wider set of activities. For the IEP, motivation is a key factor when identifying whether a given attack or atrocity is an act of terror.
The total annual number of deaths from terrorism worldwide peaked in 2015, with over 10,000 fatalities. The Global Terrorism Index found that since then, global deaths from terrorist incidents have fallen by over a third. Of the nations covered in the analysis, nearly half suffered no terrorist attacks or fatalities in 2020 and 2021. Yet during 2021 itself, the total number of terrorist attacks increased globally by 17%, with an estimated 52% of these not being attributed to any particular group. This statistic is largely influenced by the intensifying conflict in the Sahel region. Acts of terror in the West, meanwhile, West have been on the decline since 2018.
Terrorism in Advanced Economies vs. Rest of the World
The GTI differentiates between OECD countries and those less economically developed when identifying factors contributing to these terrorist incidents. For the GTI, primary determinants of terrorist activity include:
- OECD – normalization of violence, especially through the weaponization and polarization of politics.
- Developing nations – institutional weakness and societal fragmentation.
The IEP relies on the concept of "positive peace" in its GTI analysis. Positive peace is defined as: “the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.” The IEP posits that regions with low levels of positive peace, such as the Sahel, lack the capacity to maintain a secure and peaceful society. Regions with high levels of positive peace, meanwhile, have established systems and policies in place to manage a stable and secure community. This gauge is an effective way to judge the correlation between societal structures and the rise in terrorist activity, while also measuring the effectiveness of policies intended to build social resilience in combating terror.
The IEP utilized indicators from both the Global Peace Index and the Positive Peace Index (PPI) to identify various factors motivating terrorist activity in advanced economies and less wealthy nations.
OECD –
- Unemployed youth. This indicator has the highest correlation with terrorism in OECD countries but is not highly correlated with terrorism outside the OECD. The IEP suggests that a lack of opportunities encourages dissatisfaction and frustration among younger generations, who are likely to blame national systems and institutions – feelings which can be exploited by terrorist groups.
- Safety, security, and militarization also rank as highly correlating indicators.
Rest of World –
- Conflict. Ongoing conflict has the strongest correlation to terrorism in non-OECD countries. Violence and insecurity related to conflicts create issues both in combating terrorist activities, and in creating societal sentiment that creates fertile ground for terrorist recruitment.
- Grievances associated with entire identity groups also ranked as highly correlated to terrorism among non-OECD countries.
- Nations with underdeveloped economies and a high degree of instability such as Afghanistan and Myanmar reported particularly high numbers of terrorist incidents.
Regionality of Terror
Aside from categorizing countries by economic output, the GPI also divides countries into 9 distinct regions to chart any geographical patterns to terrorist activity. For example, Russian and Eurasia proved to have the largest decrease in deaths from terrorist related incidents over the period surveyed. Nations in sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, recorded a higher impact from terrorist activities.
Only a small fraction of global terrorist incidents take place in the West. The GTI found that in the last decade, only 0.68% of the total number of deaths caused by terrorist acts occurred on Western soil. For terrorist attacks that do take place in the West, religious terrorism is the most common ideological motivation – primarily due to the rise of radical Islamist groups. Around 60% of all terrorism-related deaths in the West were linked with radical Islamists. Religious terrorism replaced nationalism and separatism as the leading form of terrorism in the West after 2015. However, political terrorism still has a significant impact in the West. The GTI distinguishes between two ideologies to political terrorism: far-right and far-left. The latter superseding the former in politically motivated terrorist attacks in the West.
One focal point of the report was the Sahel region of Africa. According to the GTI report, terrorist activity is largely concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, the Sahel region in particular experienced a surge of terrorist activity accounting for 35% of global terror deaths in 2021. Furthermore, around 48% of all terrorism-related deaths around the world in 2021 took place in sub-Saharan Africa with much of that focused on the Sahel region. Indeed, the Sahel experienced an approximately 1,000% increase in terrorism-related deaths since 2007.
Must of the IEP’s focus in the GTI report was dedicated to understanding terrorist networks and activities in the Sahel. The report found that the region suffered a “lack of basic security,” which largely accounted for the spike in terrorism. With conflict on the rise in the Sahel, there have been increased social stresses and access to weapons.
The IEP found there was a concentration of terrorist activity in South Asia and sub Saharan Africa. The Sahel region in particular experienced According to the report by the IEP, 48% of all terrorism-related fatalities occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the Sahel region. An area in which has seen an upwards of 1000% increase in deaths from terrorist incidents since 2007. A significant portion of the IEP’s report on global terrorism attempted to tackle the intricacies of terrorist networks in the Sahel. They cited a “lack of basic security” as a key factor in the rise of terrorist activities in the region. Furthermore, the report notes a stark link between conflict and terrorism. The increase in conflict in the Sahel has led to an increase in weapons and violence, which has subsequently led to a rise in terrorist groups. The report’s emphasis on a “crisis” in the Sahel doesn’t go unnoticed either.
The Formation and Disintegration of Terrorist Groups
The final section of the GTI breaks down the factors contributing to the formation and disintegration of terrorist groups. The report charts a set of “positive feedback that form support systems for terrorist organizations’ recruitment efforts. Many terrorist groups have succeeded and continue to succeed in recruiting those individuals in society who feel particularly agitated and abandoned by their governments or institutions. News networks and media outlets also aid in recruitment, unintentionally, by providing a spotlight for terrorist groups. In the recent decades, social media has become an increasingly popular tool amongst terrorist organizations. These platforms allow terrorist groups to promote their messages and lure individuals to their cause. The GTI suggests that in order to combat recruitment, especially among the younger population, better education is required. Teaching vulnerable and uninformed youth the “reality of belonging to and operating for a terrorist group” has been known to dissuade recruitment.
According to the GTI, most terrorist groups are short-lived. Many disband or merge with other groups within a year of forming, with only a handful reaching the 10-year mark. Of those groups that show long-term resilience, most are reinforced by a strong support system and sufficient funding. As a broader trend, the number of active terrorist groups has been slowly dwindling within the last years. Some organizations are even moving away from terrorist activities and into the political sphere, working within the systems they wish to change.
The IEP’s Global Terrorism Index offers a comprehensive take on the current state of global terrorism. The report makes thoughtful suggestions on strategies for undermining terrorist efforts, from education to cultivating “positive peace.” Despite this helpful analysis, the GTI primarily looks backward and does little to account for the future of terrorism beyond its current decline. That decline, as the report itself states, could be largely due to the impacts of COVID-19. This suggests we could experience a resurgence in terrorism as we look toward an era of dwindling economic opportunities, rise in mental health issues, and general disillusionment.
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Global Terrorism Incidents and Deaths Trending Downward
Children walking through the ruins of the old marketplaces in Shingal, following the war with the Islamic State. Photo by Levi Meir Clancy via Unsplash.
April 13, 2022
The total annual number of deaths from terrorism worldwide peaked in 2015, with over 10,000 fatalities. Since then, global deaths from terrorist incidents have fallen by over a third, finds the latest Global Terrorism Index by the Institute of Economics and Peace.
T
he Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) has released an extensive report on the biggest trends in global terrorism over the last few years. Their Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2022 measured the effects of terrorism on 163 countries, accounting for most of the world’s population. The report analyzes terrorism patterns and activities throughout the world — examining trends in the incidence and deadliness of terrorist attacks, resilience and longevity of terrorist groups, and societal factors that appear to correlate with incidences of terrorism.
Overview of Terrorism Across the World
The IEP defines terrorism for their GTI report as an established threat, usually through the use of violence, against some form of authority. The report identifies the motivations behind these threats as attempts to promote “a political, religious, or ideological message to a group larger than the victim group, by generating fear and so altering (or attempting to alter) the behavior of the larger group.” The IEP’s specifications for what could be considered terrorist activity specifically exclude acts of warfare, matters of civil unrest, and attacks that are committed by those suffering from mental disabilities. These exclusions are an attempt to further refine what exactly constitutes a terrorist act – a welcome development as the label is increasingly mobilized to describe a wider set of activities. For the IEP, motivation is a key factor when identifying whether a given attack or atrocity is an act of terror.
The total annual number of deaths from terrorism worldwide peaked in 2015, with over 10,000 fatalities. The Global Terrorism Index found that since then, global deaths from terrorist incidents have fallen by over a third. Of the nations covered in the analysis, nearly half suffered no terrorist attacks or fatalities in 2020 and 2021. Yet during 2021 itself, the total number of terrorist attacks increased globally by 17%, with an estimated 52% of these not being attributed to any particular group. This statistic is largely influenced by the intensifying conflict in the Sahel region. Acts of terror in the West, meanwhile, West have been on the decline since 2018.
Terrorism in Advanced Economies vs. Rest of the World
The GTI differentiates between OECD countries and those less economically developed when identifying factors contributing to these terrorist incidents. For the GTI, primary determinants of terrorist activity include:
- OECD – normalization of violence, especially through the weaponization and polarization of politics.
- Developing nations – institutional weakness and societal fragmentation.
The IEP relies on the concept of "positive peace" in its GTI analysis. Positive peace is defined as: “the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies.” The IEP posits that regions with low levels of positive peace, such as the Sahel, lack the capacity to maintain a secure and peaceful society. Regions with high levels of positive peace, meanwhile, have established systems and policies in place to manage a stable and secure community. This gauge is an effective way to judge the correlation between societal structures and the rise in terrorist activity, while also measuring the effectiveness of policies intended to build social resilience in combating terror.
The IEP utilized indicators from both the Global Peace Index and the Positive Peace Index (PPI) to identify various factors motivating terrorist activity in advanced economies and less wealthy nations.
OECD –
- Unemployed youth. This indicator has the highest correlation with terrorism in OECD countries but is not highly correlated with terrorism outside the OECD. The IEP suggests that a lack of opportunities encourages dissatisfaction and frustration among younger generations, who are likely to blame national systems and institutions – feelings which can be exploited by terrorist groups.
- Safety, security, and militarization also rank as highly correlating indicators.
Rest of World –
- Conflict. Ongoing conflict has the strongest correlation to terrorism in non-OECD countries. Violence and insecurity related to conflicts create issues both in combating terrorist activities, and in creating societal sentiment that creates fertile ground for terrorist recruitment.
- Grievances associated with entire identity groups also ranked as highly correlated to terrorism among non-OECD countries.
- Nations with underdeveloped economies and a high degree of instability such as Afghanistan and Myanmar reported particularly high numbers of terrorist incidents.
Regionality of Terror
Aside from categorizing countries by economic output, the GPI also divides countries into 9 distinct regions to chart any geographical patterns to terrorist activity. For example, Russian and Eurasia proved to have the largest decrease in deaths from terrorist related incidents over the period surveyed. Nations in sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, recorded a higher impact from terrorist activities.
Only a small fraction of global terrorist incidents take place in the West. The GTI found that in the last decade, only 0.68% of the total number of deaths caused by terrorist acts occurred on Western soil. For terrorist attacks that do take place in the West, religious terrorism is the most common ideological motivation – primarily due to the rise of radical Islamist groups. Around 60% of all terrorism-related deaths in the West were linked with radical Islamists. Religious terrorism replaced nationalism and separatism as the leading form of terrorism in the West after 2015. However, political terrorism still has a significant impact in the West. The GTI distinguishes between two ideologies to political terrorism: far-right and far-left. The latter superseding the former in politically motivated terrorist attacks in the West.
One focal point of the report was the Sahel region of Africa. According to the GTI report, terrorist activity is largely concentrated in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2021, the Sahel region in particular experienced a surge of terrorist activity accounting for 35% of global terror deaths in 2021. Furthermore, around 48% of all terrorism-related deaths around the world in 2021 took place in sub-Saharan Africa with much of that focused on the Sahel region. Indeed, the Sahel experienced an approximately 1,000% increase in terrorism-related deaths since 2007.
Must of the IEP’s focus in the GTI report was dedicated to understanding terrorist networks and activities in the Sahel. The report found that the region suffered a “lack of basic security,” which largely accounted for the spike in terrorism. With conflict on the rise in the Sahel, there have been increased social stresses and access to weapons.
The IEP found there was a concentration of terrorist activity in South Asia and sub Saharan Africa. The Sahel region in particular experienced According to the report by the IEP, 48% of all terrorism-related fatalities occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in the Sahel region. An area in which has seen an upwards of 1000% increase in deaths from terrorist incidents since 2007. A significant portion of the IEP’s report on global terrorism attempted to tackle the intricacies of terrorist networks in the Sahel. They cited a “lack of basic security” as a key factor in the rise of terrorist activities in the region. Furthermore, the report notes a stark link between conflict and terrorism. The increase in conflict in the Sahel has led to an increase in weapons and violence, which has subsequently led to a rise in terrorist groups. The report’s emphasis on a “crisis” in the Sahel doesn’t go unnoticed either.
The Formation and Disintegration of Terrorist Groups
The final section of the GTI breaks down the factors contributing to the formation and disintegration of terrorist groups. The report charts a set of “positive feedback that form support systems for terrorist organizations’ recruitment efforts. Many terrorist groups have succeeded and continue to succeed in recruiting those individuals in society who feel particularly agitated and abandoned by their governments or institutions. News networks and media outlets also aid in recruitment, unintentionally, by providing a spotlight for terrorist groups. In the recent decades, social media has become an increasingly popular tool amongst terrorist organizations. These platforms allow terrorist groups to promote their messages and lure individuals to their cause. The GTI suggests that in order to combat recruitment, especially among the younger population, better education is required. Teaching vulnerable and uninformed youth the “reality of belonging to and operating for a terrorist group” has been known to dissuade recruitment.
According to the GTI, most terrorist groups are short-lived. Many disband or merge with other groups within a year of forming, with only a handful reaching the 10-year mark. Of those groups that show long-term resilience, most are reinforced by a strong support system and sufficient funding. As a broader trend, the number of active terrorist groups has been slowly dwindling within the last years. Some organizations are even moving away from terrorist activities and into the political sphere, working within the systems they wish to change.
The IEP’s Global Terrorism Index offers a comprehensive take on the current state of global terrorism. The report makes thoughtful suggestions on strategies for undermining terrorist efforts, from education to cultivating “positive peace.” Despite this helpful analysis, the GTI primarily looks backward and does little to account for the future of terrorism beyond its current decline. That decline, as the report itself states, could be largely due to the impacts of COVID-19. This suggests we could experience a resurgence in terrorism as we look toward an era of dwindling economic opportunities, rise in mental health issues, and general disillusionment.
