s the Russian invasion passes its one-year anniversary, the war has been devastating. The Russian incursion has ravaged countless cities and villages. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have perished, and one-fourth of Ukraine’s population has been displaced. In 2022, Ukraine’s economy shrank by 32% due to the war, and economic experts predict it will take $1 trillion to rebuild the country.
The Russians have also incurred heavy losses. To date, over 130,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war. Many more have become injured. In addition, the Russians have lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment. Despite these losses, the needless Russian invasion continues without an apparent end.
But there is reason to believe that Ukraine will win the war. This could happen as early as 2023.
When the Russian invasion began, several countries hesitated to send aid to Ukraine. They were still determining how long the Ukrainians would last. Meanwhile, numerous Western media outlets reported Ukraine’s collapse was imminent.
The Ukrainians proved them wrong. In the initial months of the war, they successfully held the Russian invaders at bay. Then, in April 2022, the Ukrainians launched a series of counter-offensives. To date, Ukrainian armed forces have successfully pushed out the Russians in northern Ukraine, and they reclaimed thousands of square miles of their territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. This determination to defend their homeland showed the world the Ukrainians would not back down. This inspired the international community to support Ukraine’s cause by providing it with foreign aid and equipment. As a result, the international community has now sent hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. This has made all the difference.
Based on these successes, how can Ukraine continue this momentum in 2023? How and why will the Ukrainians win?
Momentum is on Ukraine’s Side
First, Russia is running out of weapons and ammunition. Military analysts have noted that as the war continues, the Russians varied their deployment of weapons. To these experts, it indicates a Russian shortage of modern equipment. The Russians are apparently relying on older and outdated equipment. For example, in an interview with BBC, military expert Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that there has been an “increased use of a variety of missiles against land targets.” Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of the British intelligence agency GCHQ concurred, stating that Russian “supplies and munitions are running out.”
This would explain why Russia began buying arms from North Korea and Iran. International sanctions on these three countries have made it more difficult for Russia to replenish its stockpiles. Russia’s, North Korea’s, and Iran’s interactions with the international community is limited, meaning they will have less access to the global supply chain for equipment. Limited interactions with the international community mean Russia will not be able to receive the items needed to repair and replenish its weapons. In other words, time is running out for Russia.
Second, the international community has started to increase its weapons supply to Ukraine. As the war has progressed, the globe has slowly supplied the Ukrainians with better equipment. Prior to the second invasion in 2022, the Ukrainians interacted frequently with NATO members in a series of exercises between 2014-2022. The Ukrainians learned from their counterparts, and they implemented significant defense reforms. These changes, in addition to Western weaponry, have played significant roles in the war. Providing the Ukrainians with modern equipment will allow them to continue their successful counter-offensives and accelerate the speed at which the Ukrainians are able to reclaim their territory.
Ukrainian tactics and logistics also contributed to their continued success. To date, the Ukrainians successfully repelled Russian attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. The Ukrainians recently liberated Kherson, the only major metropolitan area Russia captured during the second invasion in 2022. They have also reclaimed “half of the land [captured by Russian forces] in eastern and southern Ukraine.” As Ukrainians continue to push into Russian-occupied territory, they will eventually cut off Russian supply chains between the east and south. This would significantly contribute to a Ukrainian victory.
Third, the Ukrainians will win this war because of their resilience and grit. Throughout the invasion, the Ukrainians have shown courage. They have successfully repelled an invasion by the world’s second-strongest military force. The Ukrainians have shown continued motivation and resilience. As the war went on, they liberated thousands of square miles of their territory from Russian forces. They have been greeted by Ukrainian citizens with open arms, and messages from their country men and women inspire them to continue defending their homeland. Finally, they have shown determination. For hundreds of years, Ukraine was ruled by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. This country is familiar with Russia’s brutality, and the Ukrainians want to rid themselves of their imperialist neighbor. In other words, the Ukrainians are willing to die for their freedom. They will not back down until their country is fully liberated. This includes the Russian-occupied territories in Crimea and the Donbas, land that Russia has illegally controlled since the spring of 2014.
Momentum, Morale Against Russia
In contrast, the Russian military has performed poorly throughout the war. It took them several months to capture significant territory in Ukraine, only to lose this land to Ukrainian forces in a matter of weeks and days. Moreover, the Russians have incurred significant casualties. Over 100,000 soldiers have been killed or injured, and hundreds of officers have died. This has contributed to a significant decline in Russian morale. In an attempt to resolve this problem, the Russian government announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 conscripts. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian military’s commitment to continue the war. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war.
In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not win. If the Russians are successfully able to capture significant territory in Ukraine, and if the international community reduces its aid to Ukraine, it will send a message to other authoritarian leaders around the world. It would suggest oppressive rulers and their regimes can invade other countries without consequence, and it will make the world a more dangerous place.
Therefore, not only is it important that Russia loses this war, but it is also critical that Ukraine wins it. Ukraine winning the war would inform authoritarian leaders they must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors. Should they violate international law, these regimes will be punished to the fullest extent, and they will be isolated from the international community.
“To achieve peace tomorrow, Ukraine needs more weapons today,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during the World Economic Forum in Davos. “NATO Allies … will continue [to support Ukraine] for as long as it takes—for Ukraine’s sake, and ours.”
Russian munition stores are depleting, Ukrainians are receiving more and better weapons from the international community, and the Ukrainians are determined to end the war. Time and momentum are on Ukraine’s side, and the Ukrainians appear to be in a good position to end, and win, the war in 2023.
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How Ukraine Can Defeat Russia in 2023
Photo by Rostislav Artov via Unsplash.
February 28, 2023
The war in Ukraine has featured a bevy of surprising twists and turns. Despite this unpredictability, Mark Temnycky writes that Ukraine feels likely to be the ultimate victor-as soon as this year-by riding its momentum and taking advantage of low Russian morale and a problematic supply situation.
A
s the Russian invasion passes its one-year anniversary, the war has been devastating. The Russian incursion has ravaged countless cities and villages. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have perished, and one-fourth of Ukraine’s population has been displaced. In 2022, Ukraine’s economy shrank by 32% due to the war, and economic experts predict it will take $1 trillion to rebuild the country.
The Russians have also incurred heavy losses. To date, over 130,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war. Many more have become injured. In addition, the Russians have lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment. Despite these losses, the needless Russian invasion continues without an apparent end.
But there is reason to believe that Ukraine will win the war. This could happen as early as 2023.
When the Russian invasion began, several countries hesitated to send aid to Ukraine. They were still determining how long the Ukrainians would last. Meanwhile, numerous Western media outlets reported Ukraine’s collapse was imminent.
The Ukrainians proved them wrong. In the initial months of the war, they successfully held the Russian invaders at bay. Then, in April 2022, the Ukrainians launched a series of counter-offensives. To date, Ukrainian armed forces have successfully pushed out the Russians in northern Ukraine, and they reclaimed thousands of square miles of their territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. This determination to defend their homeland showed the world the Ukrainians would not back down. This inspired the international community to support Ukraine’s cause by providing it with foreign aid and equipment. As a result, the international community has now sent hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. This has made all the difference.
Based on these successes, how can Ukraine continue this momentum in 2023? How and why will the Ukrainians win?
Momentum is on Ukraine’s Side
First, Russia is running out of weapons and ammunition. Military analysts have noted that as the war continues, the Russians varied their deployment of weapons. To these experts, it indicates a Russian shortage of modern equipment. The Russians are apparently relying on older and outdated equipment. For example, in an interview with BBC, military expert Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said that there has been an “increased use of a variety of missiles against land targets.” Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of the British intelligence agency GCHQ concurred, stating that Russian “supplies and munitions are running out.”
This would explain why Russia began buying arms from North Korea and Iran. International sanctions on these three countries have made it more difficult for Russia to replenish its stockpiles. Russia’s, North Korea’s, and Iran’s interactions with the international community is limited, meaning they will have less access to the global supply chain for equipment. Limited interactions with the international community mean Russia will not be able to receive the items needed to repair and replenish its weapons. In other words, time is running out for Russia.
Second, the international community has started to increase its weapons supply to Ukraine. As the war has progressed, the globe has slowly supplied the Ukrainians with better equipment. Prior to the second invasion in 2022, the Ukrainians interacted frequently with NATO members in a series of exercises between 2014-2022. The Ukrainians learned from their counterparts, and they implemented significant defense reforms. These changes, in addition to Western weaponry, have played significant roles in the war. Providing the Ukrainians with modern equipment will allow them to continue their successful counter-offensives and accelerate the speed at which the Ukrainians are able to reclaim their territory.
Ukrainian tactics and logistics also contributed to their continued success. To date, the Ukrainians successfully repelled Russian attacks on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa. The Ukrainians recently liberated Kherson, the only major metropolitan area Russia captured during the second invasion in 2022. They have also reclaimed “half of the land [captured by Russian forces] in eastern and southern Ukraine.” As Ukrainians continue to push into Russian-occupied territory, they will eventually cut off Russian supply chains between the east and south. This would significantly contribute to a Ukrainian victory.
Third, the Ukrainians will win this war because of their resilience and grit. Throughout the invasion, the Ukrainians have shown courage. They have successfully repelled an invasion by the world’s second-strongest military force. The Ukrainians have shown continued motivation and resilience. As the war went on, they liberated thousands of square miles of their territory from Russian forces. They have been greeted by Ukrainian citizens with open arms, and messages from their country men and women inspire them to continue defending their homeland. Finally, they have shown determination. For hundreds of years, Ukraine was ruled by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. This country is familiar with Russia’s brutality, and the Ukrainians want to rid themselves of their imperialist neighbor. In other words, the Ukrainians are willing to die for their freedom. They will not back down until their country is fully liberated. This includes the Russian-occupied territories in Crimea and the Donbas, land that Russia has illegally controlled since the spring of 2014.
Momentum, Morale Against Russia
In contrast, the Russian military has performed poorly throughout the war. It took them several months to capture significant territory in Ukraine, only to lose this land to Ukrainian forces in a matter of weeks and days. Moreover, the Russians have incurred significant casualties. Over 100,000 soldiers have been killed or injured, and hundreds of officers have died. This has contributed to a significant decline in Russian morale. In an attempt to resolve this problem, the Russian government announced a partial mobilization of 300,000 conscripts. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian military’s commitment to continue the war. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war.
In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not win. If the Russians are successfully able to capture significant territory in Ukraine, and if the international community reduces its aid to Ukraine, it will send a message to other authoritarian leaders around the world. It would suggest oppressive rulers and their regimes can invade other countries without consequence, and it will make the world a more dangerous place.
Therefore, not only is it important that Russia loses this war, but it is also critical that Ukraine wins it. Ukraine winning the war would inform authoritarian leaders they must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors. Should they violate international law, these regimes will be punished to the fullest extent, and they will be isolated from the international community.
“To achieve peace tomorrow, Ukraine needs more weapons today,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said during the World Economic Forum in Davos. “NATO Allies … will continue [to support Ukraine] for as long as it takes—for Ukraine’s sake, and ours.”
Russian munition stores are depleting, Ukrainians are receiving more and better weapons from the international community, and the Ukrainians are determined to end the war. Time and momentum are on Ukraine’s side, and the Ukrainians appear to be in a good position to end, and win, the war in 2023.
