Only eight weeks will separate the municipal elections (March 23rd and 30th) and the European elections (May 25th) next spring in France—two key milestones that could accelerate the path towards a redefined political landscape. As President Hollande’s popularity plummets in recent polls and the defiance towards traditional parties continues to grow, many pundits consider that the 2014 EU elections in France will once again be a “referendum” on the government’s popularity and a reflection of the current trend towards the radicalisation of French politics. The next European elections in France are likely to be once more plagued by abstention, and the shift from a bipartisan to a tri-partisan political landscape further accelerated.
A Growing Trend Towards Abstention
The 2014 EU elections are likely to struggle to generate interest from French voters and could very well be marked by a record-breaking abstention rate, as participation has consistently decreased in France since 1979. The last three EU elections in France have been marked by an abstention rate of more than 50 percent and, after an all-time low in 2009 (when 59.37 percent of voters did not cast a ballot), 2014 is unlikely to buck this downward trend. The lack of interest from French voters in the EU elections has often been explained in France by the failure of the major political parties to place European issues at the top of the agenda and to link the benefits of EU policies to the daily life of French citizens.
While the key issues and parameters of the campaign are slowly emerging, six months ahead of the 2014 elections, the debate remains focused on whether these elections will be the climax of voters’ discontent towards the current French administration and if they will trigger the government reshuffle that many observers already predict. The debate is once again likely to focus on national political issues rather than on major EU policy priorities such as an EU banking union, tax harmonisation, a stronger European defence, or the economic governance of the euro zone.
In that context, as long as the European elections are seen by voters—and used by French political parties—as a vote of confidence on the current direction taken by the national government, abstention will likely continue to rise. This is even more probable this year as the European elections will immediately follow the municipal elections that are already considered a major test for President Hollande and his government. Confirming that EU mandates tend to be seen as “second tier” by French politicians and in order to avoid political retaliations, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault recently advised members of the government not to lead any list for the European elections.
An Acceleration in the Rapid Rise of the French National Front Party
A recent poll conducted by the Institut Français d’Opinion Publique (IFOP) on October 9th placed the National Front (far right wing party) as the front runner for the 2014 EU elections with 24 percent of voting intentions. It is the first time that the National Front has ever topped a pre-election poll ahead of traditional parties such as the UMP (conservative right wing party) and PS (President Hollande’s socialist party), trailing respectively at 22 percent and 19 percent.
Marine Le Pen’s National Front party momentum started in the 2012 presidential elections where she obtained 18 percent of the vote and its rise has further accelerated throughout 2013. On September 7th a poll conducted by the CSA institute revealed that 36 percent of French voters now consider Marine Le Pen as the primary opposition figure to President Hollande. She is placed far ahead of traditional party leaders such as Jean-François Copé, the leader of the UMP, who came second with 23 percent. Although the National Front has long been attracting protest votes, it has enlarged its base since 2012 by gathering more votes from disappointed former supporters of the PS and UMP parties thanks to a populist platform which has appealed to many voters in times of economic downturn.
This trend was confirmed on October 13th with the landslide victory of the National Front candidate in a by-election for one of the General Counselors in the Var department (southeast of France). Although a relatively minor public office in a region traditionally favorable to the National Front’s platform, such a decisive victory by an unknown candidate confirmed the growing influence of the party and its position as one of the major forces in the French political landscape. This rise is likely to continue with the EU elections as protests over the government’s policies continue to develop and because France’s proportional representation voting system traditionally favors smaller parties.
Since François Hollande’s election, the National Front’s platform has been focused on curbing immigration and exiting the euro zone, claiming to protect French people against the “European Soviet Union”. In the context of record unemployment and a struggling economy, this populist approach is generating a lot of interest among a population that continues to perceive the European Union as a source of problems and constraints rather than a positive force improving their daily life. This growing euroscepticism has also been fuelled by the anti-European stance taken by many candidates from the mainstream French parties during the last elections, criticising the austerity measures imposed on several European countries or questioning the existence of the Schengen area. According to a poll conducted by Gallup in May 2013, if a referendum on membership of the EU were to be held, one third of French voters would vote to leave, while 43 percent would vote to remain in it.
The year 2014 will mark a crossroad in European politics. The rise of nationalism and euroscepticism is not merely a French particularity; a similar phenomenon can be observed in many European countries. As many observers point out, there will be growing success for nationalist and populist parties in the next European elections unless governments throughout Europe, as well as the EU institutions, manage to shift the debate from politics to policies.
Tristan Lemonnier is a member of APCO Worldwide’s public affairs team and is based in Paris, France.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here.
Photo: Philippe Moreau Chevrolet (cc).
Previous articles in this series: Impact of a New German Government on the European Union
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French Nationalism and Euroscepticism Sign of Greater Discontent in EU Elections
November 15, 2013
Only eight weeks will separate the municipal elections (March 23rd and 30th) and the European elections (May 25th) next spring in France—two key milestones that could accelerate the path towards a redefined political landscape. As President Hollande’s popularity plummets in recent polls and the defiance towards traditional parties continues to grow, many pundits consider that the 2014 EU elections in France will once again be a “referendum” on the government’s popularity and a reflection of the current trend towards the radicalisation of French politics. The next European elections in France are likely to be once more plagued by abstention, and the shift from a bipartisan to a tri-partisan political landscape further accelerated.
A Growing Trend Towards Abstention
The 2014 EU elections are likely to struggle to generate interest from French voters and could very well be marked by a record-breaking abstention rate, as participation has consistently decreased in France since 1979. The last three EU elections in France have been marked by an abstention rate of more than 50 percent and, after an all-time low in 2009 (when 59.37 percent of voters did not cast a ballot), 2014 is unlikely to buck this downward trend. The lack of interest from French voters in the EU elections has often been explained in France by the failure of the major political parties to place European issues at the top of the agenda and to link the benefits of EU policies to the daily life of French citizens.
While the key issues and parameters of the campaign are slowly emerging, six months ahead of the 2014 elections, the debate remains focused on whether these elections will be the climax of voters’ discontent towards the current French administration and if they will trigger the government reshuffle that many observers already predict. The debate is once again likely to focus on national political issues rather than on major EU policy priorities such as an EU banking union, tax harmonisation, a stronger European defence, or the economic governance of the euro zone.
In that context, as long as the European elections are seen by voters—and used by French political parties—as a vote of confidence on the current direction taken by the national government, abstention will likely continue to rise. This is even more probable this year as the European elections will immediately follow the municipal elections that are already considered a major test for President Hollande and his government. Confirming that EU mandates tend to be seen as “second tier” by French politicians and in order to avoid political retaliations, Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault recently advised members of the government not to lead any list for the European elections.
An Acceleration in the Rapid Rise of the French National Front Party
A recent poll conducted by the Institut Français d’Opinion Publique (IFOP) on October 9th placed the National Front (far right wing party) as the front runner for the 2014 EU elections with 24 percent of voting intentions. It is the first time that the National Front has ever topped a pre-election poll ahead of traditional parties such as the UMP (conservative right wing party) and PS (President Hollande’s socialist party), trailing respectively at 22 percent and 19 percent.
Marine Le Pen’s National Front party momentum started in the 2012 presidential elections where she obtained 18 percent of the vote and its rise has further accelerated throughout 2013. On September 7th a poll conducted by the CSA institute revealed that 36 percent of French voters now consider Marine Le Pen as the primary opposition figure to President Hollande. She is placed far ahead of traditional party leaders such as Jean-François Copé, the leader of the UMP, who came second with 23 percent. Although the National Front has long been attracting protest votes, it has enlarged its base since 2012 by gathering more votes from disappointed former supporters of the PS and UMP parties thanks to a populist platform which has appealed to many voters in times of economic downturn.
This trend was confirmed on October 13th with the landslide victory of the National Front candidate in a by-election for one of the General Counselors in the Var department (southeast of France). Although a relatively minor public office in a region traditionally favorable to the National Front’s platform, such a decisive victory by an unknown candidate confirmed the growing influence of the party and its position as one of the major forces in the French political landscape. This rise is likely to continue with the EU elections as protests over the government’s policies continue to develop and because France’s proportional representation voting system traditionally favors smaller parties.
Since François Hollande’s election, the National Front’s platform has been focused on curbing immigration and exiting the euro zone, claiming to protect French people against the “European Soviet Union”. In the context of record unemployment and a struggling economy, this populist approach is generating a lot of interest among a population that continues to perceive the European Union as a source of problems and constraints rather than a positive force improving their daily life. This growing euroscepticism has also been fuelled by the anti-European stance taken by many candidates from the mainstream French parties during the last elections, criticising the austerity measures imposed on several European countries or questioning the existence of the Schengen area. According to a poll conducted by Gallup in May 2013, if a referendum on membership of the EU were to be held, one third of French voters would vote to leave, while 43 percent would vote to remain in it.
The year 2014 will mark a crossroad in European politics. The rise of nationalism and euroscepticism is not merely a French particularity; a similar phenomenon can be observed in many European countries. As many observers point out, there will be growing success for nationalist and populist parties in the next European elections unless governments throughout Europe, as well as the EU institutions, manage to shift the debate from politics to policies.
Tristan Lemonnier is a member of APCO Worldwide’s public affairs team and is based in Paris, France.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here.
Photo: Philippe Moreau Chevrolet (cc).
