The date of the European election in the UK on May 22nd is fast approaching. But with less than a month before voters go to the polls, the European Parliament’s optimistic slogan for the 2014 election—“This time it’s different”—appears to ring hollow in the UK.
The slogan gives a nod to the fact that voters will, for the first time, be able to select their candidates for the post of European Commission President. However, public awareness of this is running low, an illustration of the wider climate of indifference which surrounds the election. In this context, the slogan, “plus ça change” might be more apposite.
It is a measure of the level of popular disillusionment with politics and the EU in particular in the UK that the parties’ European election campaigns were launched last week with little fanfare. What limited interest there was focused on the unveiling of the UK Independence Party’s (Ukip) election advertising campaign, whose distinctly anti-immigration flavour drew criticism from many quarters and prompted Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg into calling on pro-Europeans to unite against the “anti-Europe establishment” led by the party’s leader, Nigel Farage.
And well might he do so, with few other leading politicians daring to follow his lead. Shorn of unity or coherence, the pro-European cause is distinctly lacking a sense of purpose. In stark contrast, Ukip’s star is appreciably on the rise. Though the party has no elected Members of Parliament at Westminster, it has performed strongly at EU elections over the past decade and looks set to easily break its record set at the last EU election in 2009, when it polled 16.5 percent of the vote. Because of this, the achievements of Mr. Farage, whose party pre-election polls suggest may push the Conservative Party into third place and perhaps even leapfrog the Labour Party into first place, are likely to be the main story of the upcoming election.
The Rise of Little Englanders
It may be surprising to think that a party whose leader has publicly declared his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, praising the Russian President’s handling of the crisis in Syria, looks set to do so well in the European election. The reasons for Ukip’s popularity can be found in its success in framing a narrative that appeals to disenchanted voters. The party is adept at speaking to their concerns, whatever they may be. Some might call this tactic populist—especially when it comes to the views Mr. Farage espouses on immigration—but it is certainly providing to be effective.
One important factor Ukip is feeding on is the widespread scale of Euroscepticism in the UK. Because of this, the upcoming election has spurred discussion not about the parties’ European policies, as one might expect, but rather the UK’s position in the EU. If the election is fought on this battleground, then the chances of Ukip being successful are tilted in its favour. Ukip is the only party campaigning on a ticket of British withdrawal from the UK, leaving it best placed to hoover up the votes of those who are convinced its interests are best served outside.
That Mr. Farage has a strong hand to play here was illustrated by the decisive victory that he recently scored over Mr. Clegg—the only mainstream party leader who has yet been prepared to mount a strident pro-European defence—in two recently televised debates on the UK’s membership of the EU. It is an accepted truth that it is easier to make the complex case in defence of the status quo than to make the simple demand to withdraw, but there is no doubt that Mr. Clegg’s pro-European plea singularly failed to capture the popular imagination.
Mr. Farage is also taking full advantage of a distrust of politicians in general. Despite his privileged upbringing, former career as a City banker and record of unsuccessfully running to become a Member of Parliament as many as six times, Mr. Farage has been successful in portraying Ukip as an insurgent movement that is taking on the Westminster elite thanks to his straight-talking style and cigarette-smoking and lager-drinking external profile. This is attracting the backing of wealthy landowners and working-class voters alike, taking votes away from both the Conservatives and Labour.
The Road to 2015
Whatever the election’s outcome, how well both the Conservative and Labour parties fare will be held up as evidence of whether Prime Minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband are currently guiding their respective flocks in the right direction; to electoral success or oblivion? A bad result would make the course ahead plotted by either leader going into the next general election, due to take place on May 7, 2015, more difficult. If the Tories are pushed into third place by Ukip then the Prime Minister may be forced to lurch to the right, taking a tougher line on issues such as immigration, in order to placate disgruntled Conservative backbenchers worried about the prospect of losing their seats. Equally, a setback for Labour would be interpreted as a rejection of Mr. Miliband’s own personal brand, undermining his leadership credentials, and, by implication, chances of becoming the next Prime Minister.
However, anyone looking to draw definitive clues from this election about the likely outcome of the next general election is likely to be disappointed. The reality is that the impact of the election is likely to be short-lived. Many Conservatives will no doubt take solace from the fact that European elections have not historically had major consequences for subsequent general elections. Parties without representation in the House of Commons have averaged a joint share of 24 percent of the European election vote since 1999, but only 4 percent of the general election vote. As such, the electoral threat of Ukip may seem fear less menacing by the time next May comes along.
A Call to Action
But that is not to completely starve the election of significance. Voters have not yet gone to the polls, but the election has once again served to underline the UK public’s feeling of detachment from the EU project. Sceptical about how the EU’s work translates into tangible benefits that affect their daily lives, many voters are perhaps unsurprisingly dubious about the importance of the UK’s membership of the EU. This election should therefore be heeded as a wake-up call for Europhiles in the UK. Mr. Clegg may not have prevailed in his television debates with Mr. Farage, but pro-Europeans should seize the opportunity to build on his high-profile defence of the advantages of EU membership. It is time for those in the other mainstream parties who are in favour of Britain’s EU membership to join him in making this argument, and with more vehemence, to ensure it does not fall on deaf ears. If the costs of UK withdrawal from the EU are so great in terms of trade and jobs, then Europhiles can no longer afford the luxury of navel-gazing.
If the EU does not want Britain to fall out of its grasp, then European political leaders should be jolted into action, too. The weakest point in Mr. Clegg’s argument during the televised debates came when he was asked to comment on what the EU will look like in ten years’ time. He was unable to muster a convincing response that underscored the EU’s commitment to reform and evolve from its current form, which is not held in high esteem by a large number of UK voters. It is noticeable that the pace of reform in the EU has slowed to glacial pace in the wake of the Cypriot banking crisis last year. European political leaders need to rediscover their appetite for reform, as failure to do so will severely hamper the efforts on those in the UK arguing in favour of EU membership. Pro-Europeans in the UK will be fighting a futile rear-guard action if they are forced to make the case at a time when a cloud of doubt looms over fundamental questions, such as whether the 18 countries in the Eurozone wish to integrate further, and, if so, how those countries outside the Eurozone, will be protected in a two speed Europe.
The message that will be sent out by the success of Ukip in this European election is loud and clear. If the warning signs are ignored, then the UK public may be reduced to a position of onlookers in the next European election, particularly as the Conservatives have promised voters a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU if they win the next general election outright. Now that would be a real departure; something truly ‘different.’
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here, and read all the articles in this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Keir Ferguson is an associate consultant with APCO Worldwide in London.
Photo: Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party. By European Parliament (cc).
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Facing Inward: A UK Perspective on the EU Election
May 5, 2014
The date of the European election in the UK on May 22nd is fast approaching. But with less than a month before voters go to the polls, the European Parliament’s optimistic slogan for the 2014 election—“This time it’s different”—appears to ring hollow in the UK.
The slogan gives a nod to the fact that voters will, for the first time, be able to select their candidates for the post of European Commission President. However, public awareness of this is running low, an illustration of the wider climate of indifference which surrounds the election. In this context, the slogan, “plus ça change” might be more apposite.
It is a measure of the level of popular disillusionment with politics and the EU in particular in the UK that the parties’ European election campaigns were launched last week with little fanfare. What limited interest there was focused on the unveiling of the UK Independence Party’s (Ukip) election advertising campaign, whose distinctly anti-immigration flavour drew criticism from many quarters and prompted Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg into calling on pro-Europeans to unite against the “anti-Europe establishment” led by the party’s leader, Nigel Farage.
And well might he do so, with few other leading politicians daring to follow his lead. Shorn of unity or coherence, the pro-European cause is distinctly lacking a sense of purpose. In stark contrast, Ukip’s star is appreciably on the rise. Though the party has no elected Members of Parliament at Westminster, it has performed strongly at EU elections over the past decade and looks set to easily break its record set at the last EU election in 2009, when it polled 16.5 percent of the vote. Because of this, the achievements of Mr. Farage, whose party pre-election polls suggest may push the Conservative Party into third place and perhaps even leapfrog the Labour Party into first place, are likely to be the main story of the upcoming election.
The Rise of Little Englanders
It may be surprising to think that a party whose leader has publicly declared his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, praising the Russian President’s handling of the crisis in Syria, looks set to do so well in the European election. The reasons for Ukip’s popularity can be found in its success in framing a narrative that appeals to disenchanted voters. The party is adept at speaking to their concerns, whatever they may be. Some might call this tactic populist—especially when it comes to the views Mr. Farage espouses on immigration—but it is certainly providing to be effective.
One important factor Ukip is feeding on is the widespread scale of Euroscepticism in the UK. Because of this, the upcoming election has spurred discussion not about the parties’ European policies, as one might expect, but rather the UK’s position in the EU. If the election is fought on this battleground, then the chances of Ukip being successful are tilted in its favour. Ukip is the only party campaigning on a ticket of British withdrawal from the UK, leaving it best placed to hoover up the votes of those who are convinced its interests are best served outside.
That Mr. Farage has a strong hand to play here was illustrated by the decisive victory that he recently scored over Mr. Clegg—the only mainstream party leader who has yet been prepared to mount a strident pro-European defence—in two recently televised debates on the UK’s membership of the EU. It is an accepted truth that it is easier to make the complex case in defence of the status quo than to make the simple demand to withdraw, but there is no doubt that Mr. Clegg’s pro-European plea singularly failed to capture the popular imagination.
Mr. Farage is also taking full advantage of a distrust of politicians in general. Despite his privileged upbringing, former career as a City banker and record of unsuccessfully running to become a Member of Parliament as many as six times, Mr. Farage has been successful in portraying Ukip as an insurgent movement that is taking on the Westminster elite thanks to his straight-talking style and cigarette-smoking and lager-drinking external profile. This is attracting the backing of wealthy landowners and working-class voters alike, taking votes away from both the Conservatives and Labour.
The Road to 2015
Whatever the election’s outcome, how well both the Conservative and Labour parties fare will be held up as evidence of whether Prime Minister David Cameron and opposition leader Ed Miliband are currently guiding their respective flocks in the right direction; to electoral success or oblivion? A bad result would make the course ahead plotted by either leader going into the next general election, due to take place on May 7, 2015, more difficult. If the Tories are pushed into third place by Ukip then the Prime Minister may be forced to lurch to the right, taking a tougher line on issues such as immigration, in order to placate disgruntled Conservative backbenchers worried about the prospect of losing their seats. Equally, a setback for Labour would be interpreted as a rejection of Mr. Miliband’s own personal brand, undermining his leadership credentials, and, by implication, chances of becoming the next Prime Minister.
However, anyone looking to draw definitive clues from this election about the likely outcome of the next general election is likely to be disappointed. The reality is that the impact of the election is likely to be short-lived. Many Conservatives will no doubt take solace from the fact that European elections have not historically had major consequences for subsequent general elections. Parties without representation in the House of Commons have averaged a joint share of 24 percent of the European election vote since 1999, but only 4 percent of the general election vote. As such, the electoral threat of Ukip may seem fear less menacing by the time next May comes along.
A Call to Action
But that is not to completely starve the election of significance. Voters have not yet gone to the polls, but the election has once again served to underline the UK public’s feeling of detachment from the EU project. Sceptical about how the EU’s work translates into tangible benefits that affect their daily lives, many voters are perhaps unsurprisingly dubious about the importance of the UK’s membership of the EU. This election should therefore be heeded as a wake-up call for Europhiles in the UK. Mr. Clegg may not have prevailed in his television debates with Mr. Farage, but pro-Europeans should seize the opportunity to build on his high-profile defence of the advantages of EU membership. It is time for those in the other mainstream parties who are in favour of Britain’s EU membership to join him in making this argument, and with more vehemence, to ensure it does not fall on deaf ears. If the costs of UK withdrawal from the EU are so great in terms of trade and jobs, then Europhiles can no longer afford the luxury of navel-gazing.
If the EU does not want Britain to fall out of its grasp, then European political leaders should be jolted into action, too. The weakest point in Mr. Clegg’s argument during the televised debates came when he was asked to comment on what the EU will look like in ten years’ time. He was unable to muster a convincing response that underscored the EU’s commitment to reform and evolve from its current form, which is not held in high esteem by a large number of UK voters. It is noticeable that the pace of reform in the EU has slowed to glacial pace in the wake of the Cypriot banking crisis last year. European political leaders need to rediscover their appetite for reform, as failure to do so will severely hamper the efforts on those in the UK arguing in favour of EU membership. Pro-Europeans in the UK will be fighting a futile rear-guard action if they are forced to make the case at a time when a cloud of doubt looms over fundamental questions, such as whether the 18 countries in the Eurozone wish to integrate further, and, if so, how those countries outside the Eurozone, will be protected in a two speed Europe.
The message that will be sent out by the success of Ukip in this European election is loud and clear. If the warning signs are ignored, then the UK public may be reduced to a position of onlookers in the next European election, particularly as the Conservatives have promised voters a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU if they win the next general election outright. Now that would be a real departure; something truly ‘different.’
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here, and read all the articles in this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Keir Ferguson is an associate consultant with APCO Worldwide in London.
Photo: Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party. By European Parliament (cc).
