French President François Hollande has unveiled a new front bench team—a new “government of combat”. Manuel Valls, popular former Minister of Interior and considered a centrist, has been appointed Prime Minister, while Ségolène Royal, former French presidential candidate and President Hollande’s ex-partner, has been given a key cabinet position as Minister of Environment.
This government reshuffle comes as President Hollande seeks to regain initiative after his party’s major setback at local elections. The new team will face the challenge of recapturing voters for the European elections that will take place on May 25th. However, the magnitude of the task at hand for the EU election is too vast, as abstentionism and indifference towards EU policy grows amongst citizens in France.
European Elections Subjugated to Domestic Politics
As in many other European countries, French voters will use this election to express their frustration against their own national government rather than focus on EU issues. It is still unclear to what extent President Hollande’s government will be punished by voters. Extremist parties such as extreme far-right Front National led by Marine Le Pen are likely to capitalise on abstention and vote polarisation, but it is uncertain if the main opposition party (UMP, right-wing) will benefit from this like it did at the recent local elections.
President Hollande’s task is a tough one. Not only does he need to convince French voters that the reshuffle represents the beginning of a new chapter, but he must also satisfy traditional left-wing voters while adhering to budget-slashing targets set by Brussels. The recent government reshuffle is unlikely to do so since the promotion of Minister Arnaud Montebourg, a protectionist who openly campaigns against austerity policies in Europe, seems rather incompatible with Prime Minister Valls’ announced budget and tax cuts.
The reason why domestic politics are likely to dominate the European Parliament election is because this scrutiny is not perceived by French voters as a key milestone that will allow them to influence the political course of Europe. In fact, very few voters care that this is the first election since the Lisbon Treaty that gave the European Parliament a number of important new powers. Voters neither care nor trust EU institutions, and they see this election as part of an ongoing domestic political cycle involving three consecutive ballots: local in March, European in May, and senatorial in September.
Mistrust in Supranational Institutions Runs Deep
Currently, only 32 percent of French citizens trust the EU institutional system. The only institutions that enjoy higher levels of confidence are local authorities, such as municipal and regional. One of the reasons for this mistrust and disinterest in EU institutions is the lack of importance French politicians usually give to EU elections. Elections to the European Parliament only count as a means to evaluate each party's strength in the public opinion.
Likewise, European Affairs Ministers in France are often unknown individuals, and EU matters are usually not given the proper relevance. If key European policy issues such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have been largely ignored by the public, it is likely because French politicians have made no serious effort to generate debates on these topics. Additionally, the party membership in France is declining and only less than three percent of the electorate has a direct say in who gets selected to run for the European Parliament, so one can understand why voters are so indifferent about EU elections.
French voters perceive these decision-making processes as drifting away from the democratic arena and into elite circles and interest groups. This democratic disorder, once labeled by sociologist Colin Crouch as “post-democracy”, is undoubtedly one of the reasons behind the worrying mistrust in EU institutions and the current abstentionist trend that is leading to vote radicalisation.
The French case is not an isolated one. A similar situation is occurring in Britain, where Eurosceptic Nigel Farage's Independence Party (UKIP) has established itself as a strong contender, and in the Netherlands, where nationalist Geert Wilders is gaining influence and calling for the Dutch to drop the Euro in favour of the national currency.
Should pro-EU parties such as Hollande’s Socialists fail to generate pan-European policy interest by only putting the spotlight on domestic issues, they will bolster discontent and push voters away. Should they lack the courage to speak openly about EU matters, they will give Eurosceptics and extremist parties the exposure they do not deserve to discuss European issues more prominently in the run up to the elections. Not taking this into consideration may result in yet another costly election for the French Socialists.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here, and read all the articles in this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Carlos Luca de Tena is an associate consultant at APCO Worldwide in Paris.
Photo: Camille Panisset (cc).
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EU Elections: A Thorny Equation for Newly-Appointed French Government
April 21, 2014
French President François Hollande has unveiled a new front bench team—a new “government of combat”. Manuel Valls, popular former Minister of Interior and considered a centrist, has been appointed Prime Minister, while Ségolène Royal, former French presidential candidate and President Hollande’s ex-partner, has been given a key cabinet position as Minister of Environment.
This government reshuffle comes as President Hollande seeks to regain initiative after his party’s major setback at local elections. The new team will face the challenge of recapturing voters for the European elections that will take place on May 25th. However, the magnitude of the task at hand for the EU election is too vast, as abstentionism and indifference towards EU policy grows amongst citizens in France.
European Elections Subjugated to Domestic Politics
As in many other European countries, French voters will use this election to express their frustration against their own national government rather than focus on EU issues. It is still unclear to what extent President Hollande’s government will be punished by voters. Extremist parties such as extreme far-right Front National led by Marine Le Pen are likely to capitalise on abstention and vote polarisation, but it is uncertain if the main opposition party (UMP, right-wing) will benefit from this like it did at the recent local elections.
President Hollande’s task is a tough one. Not only does he need to convince French voters that the reshuffle represents the beginning of a new chapter, but he must also satisfy traditional left-wing voters while adhering to budget-slashing targets set by Brussels. The recent government reshuffle is unlikely to do so since the promotion of Minister Arnaud Montebourg, a protectionist who openly campaigns against austerity policies in Europe, seems rather incompatible with Prime Minister Valls’ announced budget and tax cuts.
The reason why domestic politics are likely to dominate the European Parliament election is because this scrutiny is not perceived by French voters as a key milestone that will allow them to influence the political course of Europe. In fact, very few voters care that this is the first election since the Lisbon Treaty that gave the European Parliament a number of important new powers. Voters neither care nor trust EU institutions, and they see this election as part of an ongoing domestic political cycle involving three consecutive ballots: local in March, European in May, and senatorial in September.
Mistrust in Supranational Institutions Runs Deep
Currently, only 32 percent of French citizens trust the EU institutional system. The only institutions that enjoy higher levels of confidence are local authorities, such as municipal and regional. One of the reasons for this mistrust and disinterest in EU institutions is the lack of importance French politicians usually give to EU elections. Elections to the European Parliament only count as a means to evaluate each party's strength in the public opinion.
Likewise, European Affairs Ministers in France are often unknown individuals, and EU matters are usually not given the proper relevance. If key European policy issues such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have been largely ignored by the public, it is likely because French politicians have made no serious effort to generate debates on these topics. Additionally, the party membership in France is declining and only less than three percent of the electorate has a direct say in who gets selected to run for the European Parliament, so one can understand why voters are so indifferent about EU elections.
French voters perceive these decision-making processes as drifting away from the democratic arena and into elite circles and interest groups. This democratic disorder, once labeled by sociologist Colin Crouch as “post-democracy”, is undoubtedly one of the reasons behind the worrying mistrust in EU institutions and the current abstentionist trend that is leading to vote radicalisation.
The French case is not an isolated one. A similar situation is occurring in Britain, where Eurosceptic Nigel Farage's Independence Party (UKIP) has established itself as a strong contender, and in the Netherlands, where nationalist Geert Wilders is gaining influence and calling for the Dutch to drop the Euro in favour of the national currency.
Should pro-EU parties such as Hollande’s Socialists fail to generate pan-European policy interest by only putting the spotlight on domestic issues, they will bolster discontent and push voters away. Should they lack the courage to speak openly about EU matters, they will give Eurosceptics and extremist parties the exposure they do not deserve to discuss European issues more prominently in the run up to the elections. Not taking this into consideration may result in yet another costly election for the French Socialists.
In a series of articles, Diplomatic Courier and APCO Worldwide are partnering to cover the 2014 European Union elections. Find more information about this series here, and read all the articles in this series here. Follow @EPElections for daily news and updates from APCO’s team in Brussels.
Carlos Luca de Tena is an associate consultant at APCO Worldwide in Paris.
Photo: Camille Panisset (cc).
