On January 28th, as anti-government protests in Egypt headed into their fourth straight night, President Hosni Mubarak finally addressed his country; he announced the immediate dissolution of the government, minus his own abdication of power. The movement to usurp Mubarak’s stranglehold on power is not new; in fact, anti-Mubarak protests took place in April of 2010. The April protests, similar to the ones this week, were originally led by disenchanted youth. The April protests came and went with little disruption to the framework of the Egyptian government or society. But the four straight days of popular anti-government protests this week throughout Egypt finally forced President Hosni Mubarak to address his country.
Similarly to Tunisia, protesters are rallying against increasing cost of living, increasing cost of fuel, increasing unemployment, political repression and torture, and overall dissatisfaction with the government’s response to their increasing needs. Unlike Tunisia however, the protests in Egypt are not likely to topple the long standing President. Realistically, this is the beginning of the end for Mubarak who is up for re-election in September 2011. The speculation amongst experts is he would either run unopposed (due to opposition parties being illegal and banned) or that he is grooming his son to take over; actions the protesters are strongly against.
Throughout the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011, Egypt experienced heightened levels of violence, particularly between the Muslim majority and Coptic Christian minority. The days of this violence have been forgotten for the time being. The protests have united the country’s population; Muslims and Christians, men and women and young and old have joined forces for a cause greater than their differences—ousting Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party. While the first three days of protests were primarily organized by young human and civil rights activists through Facebook and Twitter, their call for massive protests on Friday after the midday prayer were supported by opposition groups who had refrained from earlier protests.
The strongest and most organized opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, finally voiced support and called on its followers to engage in anti-government protests after the midday prayer. Mohammad El Baradei—the former UN chief of IAEA—also vocalized support for the Friday protests. Since resigning from his UN post in late 2009, rumors and speculations were abound as to his desire to return to Egypt and run against Mubarak for President. El Baradei encouraged the April 2010 protests, but hedged his bets by declaring he would only campaign for the Presidency if free and fair elections were promised and upheld. His bluff may be called. He returned to Cairo on Thursday afternoon to participate in and lead protests on Friday. The government quickly responded to the leading opposition’s declared involvement; top leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood were detained Thursday night and El Baradei was essentially put under house arrest in his mosque while partaking in his midday prayer.
As Friday's protests continued, it became clear that the traditional anti-protest apparatus—the national police—was ineffective at restraining protesters. As police posts, government buildings (including the National Democratic Party's Cairo headquarters) and armored vehicles burned on the streets, the Egyptian army assumed responsibility for crowd restraint. Even the army was unable to quell the demonstrations and simply secured the perimeter of vital national and ruling party interests such as the Museum of Antiquities. The inability of the military to squash demonstrations forced Mubarak to finally address his nation. As he came to the podium, the protesters silenced their chants, but as soon as Mubarak completed his message the protests continued with Egyptians chanting "Down with Mubarak."
As the protests continue, it appears that the only means of appeasing the public is for Mubarak to essentially admit that he is defeated and step down from power. Unlike Tunisia where the President abandoned his post overnight, Mubarak cannot do so. The protesters may desire this, but it would be ill fated for the stability of the country and the Arab World. Mubarak must gradually reduce his power by including in the new government, slated to be selected and start work on January 29, opposition leaders while making a transition to opening Egypt into a true Democracy by holding free and fair elections in September if not sooner.
Although following developments in Egypt may be the most exciting and intriguing storyline in the Middle East, one cannot avoid speculating about a domino effect in the region. Protests numbering in the thousands have already occurred in Yemen and Jordan with smaller protests taking place in Algeria.
The success of Tunisian protests has influenced the demonstrations in Egypt and other Arab countries. While Tunisia served as a catalyst for demonstrations, there are several distinct differences between Tunisia and the other fomenting Arab countries that are extremely important. The movement in Tunisia was widely led and supported by the younger generations (of particular note is the median age of Tunisia, 29.7 years old). The movements in other Arab countries are also primarily fueled by youth discontent, this is extremely important because Egypt's median age is 24; even more importantly, Jordan's median age is 21.8 and Yemen is even more staggering—17.89 years old.
Unemployment was a factor in Tunisia, just as it served as part of Egyptians' laundry list of complaints against Mubarak. Tunisia's unemployment outpaced Egypt's, 14% to 9.6%, and is similar to Jordan's and Algeria's, 13.4% and 9.9% respectively, but most importantly, Yemen's jobless rate is a nearly an unimaginable percentage, 35%.
Although Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis and Jordanians have all voiced frustration with the high levels of their respective countries' poverty rates, Tunisia appears to be an outlier. Tunisia has a relatively low poverty rate for the region at 3.8%. Jordan's stands at 14.2%, Egypt's at 20%, Algeria's at 23% and Yemen's at a staggering 45.2%. When analyzing these statistics together, it seems abundantly clear that the country to watch is Yemen. A collapse of the Yemeni government could be disastrous for the world. Yemen has already proven to be a hotbed for conflict; the country faces separatist movements in the North and South and has already proven to be an overwhelmingly successful recruiting and training ground for al-Qeada.
Time will only tell if the anti-government demonstrations will combat social injustices similarly to the throwing off of the Communist yoke in Eastern Europe and former Soviet satellite states in 1991 or if it will usher in a new era of fundamentalist regimes gaining footholds in the governing bodies of the Arab world.
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Egypt on the Brink and What It Means for Yemen and Jordan
January 28, 2011
On January 28th, as anti-government protests in Egypt headed into their fourth straight night, President Hosni Mubarak finally addressed his country; he announced the immediate dissolution of the government, minus his own abdication of power. The movement to usurp Mubarak’s stranglehold on power is not new; in fact, anti-Mubarak protests took place in April of 2010. The April protests, similar to the ones this week, were originally led by disenchanted youth. The April protests came and went with little disruption to the framework of the Egyptian government or society. But the four straight days of popular anti-government protests this week throughout Egypt finally forced President Hosni Mubarak to address his country.
Similarly to Tunisia, protesters are rallying against increasing cost of living, increasing cost of fuel, increasing unemployment, political repression and torture, and overall dissatisfaction with the government’s response to their increasing needs. Unlike Tunisia however, the protests in Egypt are not likely to topple the long standing President. Realistically, this is the beginning of the end for Mubarak who is up for re-election in September 2011. The speculation amongst experts is he would either run unopposed (due to opposition parties being illegal and banned) or that he is grooming his son to take over; actions the protesters are strongly against.
Throughout the end of 2010 and beginning of 2011, Egypt experienced heightened levels of violence, particularly between the Muslim majority and Coptic Christian minority. The days of this violence have been forgotten for the time being. The protests have united the country’s population; Muslims and Christians, men and women and young and old have joined forces for a cause greater than their differences—ousting Mubarak and his ruling National Democratic Party. While the first three days of protests were primarily organized by young human and civil rights activists through Facebook and Twitter, their call for massive protests on Friday after the midday prayer were supported by opposition groups who had refrained from earlier protests.
The strongest and most organized opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood, finally voiced support and called on its followers to engage in anti-government protests after the midday prayer. Mohammad El Baradei—the former UN chief of IAEA—also vocalized support for the Friday protests. Since resigning from his UN post in late 2009, rumors and speculations were abound as to his desire to return to Egypt and run against Mubarak for President. El Baradei encouraged the April 2010 protests, but hedged his bets by declaring he would only campaign for the Presidency if free and fair elections were promised and upheld. His bluff may be called. He returned to Cairo on Thursday afternoon to participate in and lead protests on Friday. The government quickly responded to the leading opposition’s declared involvement; top leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood were detained Thursday night and El Baradei was essentially put under house arrest in his mosque while partaking in his midday prayer.
As Friday's protests continued, it became clear that the traditional anti-protest apparatus—the national police—was ineffective at restraining protesters. As police posts, government buildings (including the National Democratic Party's Cairo headquarters) and armored vehicles burned on the streets, the Egyptian army assumed responsibility for crowd restraint. Even the army was unable to quell the demonstrations and simply secured the perimeter of vital national and ruling party interests such as the Museum of Antiquities. The inability of the military to squash demonstrations forced Mubarak to finally address his nation. As he came to the podium, the protesters silenced their chants, but as soon as Mubarak completed his message the protests continued with Egyptians chanting "Down with Mubarak."
As the protests continue, it appears that the only means of appeasing the public is for Mubarak to essentially admit that he is defeated and step down from power. Unlike Tunisia where the President abandoned his post overnight, Mubarak cannot do so. The protesters may desire this, but it would be ill fated for the stability of the country and the Arab World. Mubarak must gradually reduce his power by including in the new government, slated to be selected and start work on January 29, opposition leaders while making a transition to opening Egypt into a true Democracy by holding free and fair elections in September if not sooner.
Although following developments in Egypt may be the most exciting and intriguing storyline in the Middle East, one cannot avoid speculating about a domino effect in the region. Protests numbering in the thousands have already occurred in Yemen and Jordan with smaller protests taking place in Algeria.
The success of Tunisian protests has influenced the demonstrations in Egypt and other Arab countries. While Tunisia served as a catalyst for demonstrations, there are several distinct differences between Tunisia and the other fomenting Arab countries that are extremely important. The movement in Tunisia was widely led and supported by the younger generations (of particular note is the median age of Tunisia, 29.7 years old). The movements in other Arab countries are also primarily fueled by youth discontent, this is extremely important because Egypt's median age is 24; even more importantly, Jordan's median age is 21.8 and Yemen is even more staggering—17.89 years old.
Unemployment was a factor in Tunisia, just as it served as part of Egyptians' laundry list of complaints against Mubarak. Tunisia's unemployment outpaced Egypt's, 14% to 9.6%, and is similar to Jordan's and Algeria's, 13.4% and 9.9% respectively, but most importantly, Yemen's jobless rate is a nearly an unimaginable percentage, 35%.
Although Tunisians, Egyptians, Yemenis and Jordanians have all voiced frustration with the high levels of their respective countries' poverty rates, Tunisia appears to be an outlier. Tunisia has a relatively low poverty rate for the region at 3.8%. Jordan's stands at 14.2%, Egypt's at 20%, Algeria's at 23% and Yemen's at a staggering 45.2%. When analyzing these statistics together, it seems abundantly clear that the country to watch is Yemen. A collapse of the Yemeni government could be disastrous for the world. Yemen has already proven to be a hotbed for conflict; the country faces separatist movements in the North and South and has already proven to be an overwhelmingly successful recruiting and training ground for al-Qeada.
Time will only tell if the anti-government demonstrations will combat social injustices similarly to the throwing off of the Communist yoke in Eastern Europe and former Soviet satellite states in 1991 or if it will usher in a new era of fundamentalist regimes gaining footholds in the governing bodies of the Arab world.
