he saga of the COVID-19 pandemic is still looming large across the globe, and although the intensity of the infection is slowly diminishing, the risk and the fear from the virus remain deeply ingrained within the world’s population.
While it is still too early to assess the exact origins of the virus and its long-term health and societal repercussions, some disturbing issues have emerged. An overall late response was exacerbated by minimal solidarity and cooperation between countries. This unforeseen and unpredictable situation has shed light on the disparities and polarization among nations. Instead of adopting united responses, countries have generally turned inward and failed to display much generosity or even empathy towards one another. This environment then invited the influence of non-western states into regions such as the Western Balkans in their struggle to combat the virus while serving to highlight the geopolitical landscape of great power competition today.
None of the six Western Balkan countries has escaped the pandemic. Their fragile democracies, weak economies, and unstable governments were severely tested as they faced limitations of medical facilities and equipment shortages due to the relatively large number of affected individuals.
The Western Balkan region has once again become an arena for rising non-western political, economic, and military powers seeking to extend their influence. The humanitarian aid delivered by China and Russia was also used to achieve their geopolitical aims in this region, located in the center of Europe, surrounded by EU member states with access to the Adriatic, Ionian, and Mediterranean Seas.
In addition, the use of the EU’s soft power strategy in the region was immediately challenged by China and Russia, resulting in a competition between powers for leadership. The humanitarian aid and medical supplies provided by Russia and China turned out to be more of a strategic move than a humanitarian one, as much of the medical supplies were flawed and unusable. However, their media campaigns and propaganda displayed a strong image of solidarity with the region, which helped shape regional perceptions in that direction. China’s actions sought to partially redress their initial cover up of the extent and severity of COVID-19 in their country.
Furthermore, the pandemic is occurring during a critical moment for the Western Balkans, where most countries will soon face elections. Faced with such pressures, the support from China and Russia was welcomed by certain political leaders who praised these donations in the media. It also served as an excuse to fire back at the EU for their late response and play the nationalism card coupled with anti-EU messaging.
Russia has a long history of propagating anti-EU messages, anti-immigration rhetoric, and pushing for the return of conservative values and nationalism over liberal cosmopolitanism. Vulnerable regions such as the Western Balkans as well as right-wing populist parties and their supporters in the EU are susceptible to such rhetoric. Populism is currently one of the greatest threats to liberal democracy and has become a point of leverage for China and Russia in their desire to weaken the western-led liberal democratic order.
China on its side has been actively leading initiatives such as the 17+1, which engages a few of the Balkan countries. While mostly an economic initiative, during the pandemic China has undertaken diplomatic campaigns to share information about the pandemic and lessons learned from its own experience battling the disease through regional bodies such as the 17+1. China then actively publicizes such initiatives to display its leadership in the region on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unfortunately, the long-awaited Zagreb Summit did not bring a clear roadmap or strategic approach to EU policy in the Western Balkans and turned out to be one among many summits that led to few tangible results. The EU eventually provided financial support to the Western Balkans amounting to billions of euros, a sum that was well beyond the modest contributions from Russia and China, pointing to the fact that Russian and Chinese influence in the region is more a question of perception. However, strategically, the EU’s donations came too late, as the region had already formed a negative opinion of the EU from its initial lack of support.
The lack of unison within the EU on issues such as Brexit, immigration, economic disparities, uneven threat perceptions, and underlying structural problems has prevented it from addressing global and regional challenges with any coherence or strength. This leaves an opening for other possibly malign actors to intervene and inject their interests in regions such as the Western Balkans, which is a strategically important area of influence for the EU and the West at large.
COVID-19 sounded an alarm once again for the EU that the Balkan region not only needs financial support, but also requires political support and a clear and unified approach towards the region. The West also needs to focus on strengthening its messaging in this region and beyond. Media influence from Russia and China is gaining strength and the EU must be vigilant to not allow it to grow to the point that perceptions are dramatically swayed towards the values that these nations espouse.
Concrete support should aim to include, for example, the opening access to negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, visa liberalization for the citizens of Kosovo, and the continuation of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia to reach a final agreement. These all need to be pursued with the utmost urgency.
It is obvious that the pandemic will leave behind a permanent mark. Besides the tremendous human loss that the pandemic has precipitated, economies will also have to recuperate, which will undoubtedly be a long-term undertaking. Globally, geopolitics will continue to cause risks and present challenges, especially in the Western Balkans which has a tendency to shift toward more authoritarian democracies and away from liberal democracy despite years of efforts to achieve the latter.
Facing China and its economic and political expansion in Europe along with Russia’s asymmetric tactics to gain power and influence, the EU remains inadequate to the task of countering these efforts. Although Russia and China are not official allies, they share the same sentiment about restructuring the U.S.-led global order to be more reflective of their values and not dominated by those of western liberal democracies. If the EU and the West at large wish to contain the influence of Russia and China in the world, it is imperative that they remain united and active in regions such as the Western Balkans in pursuit of its integration into western institutions.
Today it is the COVID-19 pandemic that created an opening for Russia and China to gain a foothold in the region, tomorrow another excuse could present a further opportunity for them to extend their reach. Now is the time for the EU and the West at large to act and push for the westernization of the region before it is too late and the situation on the ground leaves no room to maneuver in the Western Balkans.
a global affairs media network
COVID-19 and the Influence of Russia and China in the Western Balkans
July 7, 2020
T
he saga of the COVID-19 pandemic is still looming large across the globe, and although the intensity of the infection is slowly diminishing, the risk and the fear from the virus remain deeply ingrained within the world’s population.
While it is still too early to assess the exact origins of the virus and its long-term health and societal repercussions, some disturbing issues have emerged. An overall late response was exacerbated by minimal solidarity and cooperation between countries. This unforeseen and unpredictable situation has shed light on the disparities and polarization among nations. Instead of adopting united responses, countries have generally turned inward and failed to display much generosity or even empathy towards one another. This environment then invited the influence of non-western states into regions such as the Western Balkans in their struggle to combat the virus while serving to highlight the geopolitical landscape of great power competition today.
None of the six Western Balkan countries has escaped the pandemic. Their fragile democracies, weak economies, and unstable governments were severely tested as they faced limitations of medical facilities and equipment shortages due to the relatively large number of affected individuals.
The Western Balkan region has once again become an arena for rising non-western political, economic, and military powers seeking to extend their influence. The humanitarian aid delivered by China and Russia was also used to achieve their geopolitical aims in this region, located in the center of Europe, surrounded by EU member states with access to the Adriatic, Ionian, and Mediterranean Seas.
In addition, the use of the EU’s soft power strategy in the region was immediately challenged by China and Russia, resulting in a competition between powers for leadership. The humanitarian aid and medical supplies provided by Russia and China turned out to be more of a strategic move than a humanitarian one, as much of the medical supplies were flawed and unusable. However, their media campaigns and propaganda displayed a strong image of solidarity with the region, which helped shape regional perceptions in that direction. China’s actions sought to partially redress their initial cover up of the extent and severity of COVID-19 in their country.
Furthermore, the pandemic is occurring during a critical moment for the Western Balkans, where most countries will soon face elections. Faced with such pressures, the support from China and Russia was welcomed by certain political leaders who praised these donations in the media. It also served as an excuse to fire back at the EU for their late response and play the nationalism card coupled with anti-EU messaging.
Russia has a long history of propagating anti-EU messages, anti-immigration rhetoric, and pushing for the return of conservative values and nationalism over liberal cosmopolitanism. Vulnerable regions such as the Western Balkans as well as right-wing populist parties and their supporters in the EU are susceptible to such rhetoric. Populism is currently one of the greatest threats to liberal democracy and has become a point of leverage for China and Russia in their desire to weaken the western-led liberal democratic order.
China on its side has been actively leading initiatives such as the 17+1, which engages a few of the Balkan countries. While mostly an economic initiative, during the pandemic China has undertaken diplomatic campaigns to share information about the pandemic and lessons learned from its own experience battling the disease through regional bodies such as the 17+1. China then actively publicizes such initiatives to display its leadership in the region on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Unfortunately, the long-awaited Zagreb Summit did not bring a clear roadmap or strategic approach to EU policy in the Western Balkans and turned out to be one among many summits that led to few tangible results. The EU eventually provided financial support to the Western Balkans amounting to billions of euros, a sum that was well beyond the modest contributions from Russia and China, pointing to the fact that Russian and Chinese influence in the region is more a question of perception. However, strategically, the EU’s donations came too late, as the region had already formed a negative opinion of the EU from its initial lack of support.
The lack of unison within the EU on issues such as Brexit, immigration, economic disparities, uneven threat perceptions, and underlying structural problems has prevented it from addressing global and regional challenges with any coherence or strength. This leaves an opening for other possibly malign actors to intervene and inject their interests in regions such as the Western Balkans, which is a strategically important area of influence for the EU and the West at large.
COVID-19 sounded an alarm once again for the EU that the Balkan region not only needs financial support, but also requires political support and a clear and unified approach towards the region. The West also needs to focus on strengthening its messaging in this region and beyond. Media influence from Russia and China is gaining strength and the EU must be vigilant to not allow it to grow to the point that perceptions are dramatically swayed towards the values that these nations espouse.
Concrete support should aim to include, for example, the opening access to negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, visa liberalization for the citizens of Kosovo, and the continuation of dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia to reach a final agreement. These all need to be pursued with the utmost urgency.
It is obvious that the pandemic will leave behind a permanent mark. Besides the tremendous human loss that the pandemic has precipitated, economies will also have to recuperate, which will undoubtedly be a long-term undertaking. Globally, geopolitics will continue to cause risks and present challenges, especially in the Western Balkans which has a tendency to shift toward more authoritarian democracies and away from liberal democracy despite years of efforts to achieve the latter.
Facing China and its economic and political expansion in Europe along with Russia’s asymmetric tactics to gain power and influence, the EU remains inadequate to the task of countering these efforts. Although Russia and China are not official allies, they share the same sentiment about restructuring the U.S.-led global order to be more reflective of their values and not dominated by those of western liberal democracies. If the EU and the West at large wish to contain the influence of Russia and China in the world, it is imperative that they remain united and active in regions such as the Western Balkans in pursuit of its integration into western institutions.
Today it is the COVID-19 pandemic that created an opening for Russia and China to gain a foothold in the region, tomorrow another excuse could present a further opportunity for them to extend their reach. Now is the time for the EU and the West at large to act and push for the westernization of the region before it is too late and the situation on the ground leaves no room to maneuver in the Western Balkans.
