his year's COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, was very close to collapse due to difficulties in coming to a final agreement. One of the reasons was the divergences between developed and developing energy-exporter countries in the conference's final document. Somewhat surprisingly, on 13 December 2023, Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 President, triumphantly announced the reaching of a "historic deal" to "transition away" from coal, oil, and gas.
Many activists celebrated that a UN climate agreement explicitly mentioned "fossil fuels" for the first time. But not all voices agreed. For example, Justin Rowlatt from the BBC underlined a "lack of compulsion" to make countries respect the climate commitments. Also, COP28's final economic pledges were below those estimated by the United Nations as necessary. Both these issues question the effectiveness of the COPs in fighting climate change.
COP28's final debate was about which formula to adopt in the final agreement—"transitioning away" for the more cautious and "phasing out" for the most daring. Among those who opposed the "phasing out" were African countries, especially those exporting fossil fuels. The Nigerian Foreign Minister, Iziaq Kunle Salako, commented, "Asking Africa to phase out fossil fuels is like asking us to stop breathing without life support."
The more gradual "transitioning away" won and was inserted in the final text. However, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes island countries particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, was skeptical of the final document. Rising sea levels and the degradation of natural resources underpinning their economies are two existential threats to them which is why they considered the "transitioning away" choice as a "death sentence" to their homelands.
Many even argued this result was due to the UAE being a petrostate with considerable interest in the fossil fuel industry. This is particularly concerning because Azerbaijan, ranked 104th in the world in adopting measures to fight climate change—according to Yale University's Environmental Performance Index—will host next year's COP29. During the closing plenary, COP28's President Sultan Al-Jaber attempted to dismiss these criticisms by telling the delegates, "I must say that you did it: you delivered... This is a true victory of multilateralism." Some Western media reinforced this narrative. For example, Bloomberg published an op-ed writing, "The COP28 climate talks in Dubai ended in a historic deal that committed the world to a transition away from all fossil fuels;" while the New York Times defined the COP28 final document as a "milestone."
However, this year's COP28 had significant shortcomings. First, while the COP28 occurred in Dubai, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a state visit about 86 miles away in Abu Dhabi. He met with the UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to expand bilateral ties and discuss current international issues. On energy, both countries agreed to cut oil production to increase market prices, a goal that Moscow failed to achieve this year despite the Saudi pressure. Climate activists criticized the visit and UAE's attempt to advance a fossil fuel and green agenda simultaneously.
Second, given the volunteer, non-binding nature of the COP's final documents, its final weak declaration ("transitioning away") is disappointing. Combating climate change is a political process pursued by governments that can change over time, and the international community has few tools to balance this situation. One of them is more actionable written commitments in the hope of making the policies of every government more ambitious.
Lastly, the COP28 has achieved limited economic success. Despite Sultan Al Jaber's celebrations of a new $85 billion climate finance commitment, this amount is far from the roughly $250 billion annually the United Nations estimates as necessary to adapt to rising temperatures in developing countries.
In the next few years, the international community will face some crucial climate-related challenges, and the COPs have always been considered the most important place to address them. However, the climate governance weaknesses that emerged last year at COP28—and will affect COP29 in 2024—need a severe reflection from policymakers worldwide, who are now called upon to solve the most dangerous environmental threats while improving climate, multilateral institutions—a double challenge requiring double efforts.
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After COP28 Disappoints, Possible Repercussions for COP29
January 7, 2024
The international community faces crucial climate challenges in the coming years, and the COPs have long been considered a key place to address these challenges. After the disappointment of COP28, policymakers will need to reflect on how to do better next year, writes Elia Preto Martini.
T
his year's COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, was very close to collapse due to difficulties in coming to a final agreement. One of the reasons was the divergences between developed and developing energy-exporter countries in the conference's final document. Somewhat surprisingly, on 13 December 2023, Sultan Al Jaber, the COP28 President, triumphantly announced the reaching of a "historic deal" to "transition away" from coal, oil, and gas.
Many activists celebrated that a UN climate agreement explicitly mentioned "fossil fuels" for the first time. But not all voices agreed. For example, Justin Rowlatt from the BBC underlined a "lack of compulsion" to make countries respect the climate commitments. Also, COP28's final economic pledges were below those estimated by the United Nations as necessary. Both these issues question the effectiveness of the COPs in fighting climate change.
COP28's final debate was about which formula to adopt in the final agreement—"transitioning away" for the more cautious and "phasing out" for the most daring. Among those who opposed the "phasing out" were African countries, especially those exporting fossil fuels. The Nigerian Foreign Minister, Iziaq Kunle Salako, commented, "Asking Africa to phase out fossil fuels is like asking us to stop breathing without life support."
The more gradual "transitioning away" won and was inserted in the final text. However, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), which includes island countries particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, was skeptical of the final document. Rising sea levels and the degradation of natural resources underpinning their economies are two existential threats to them which is why they considered the "transitioning away" choice as a "death sentence" to their homelands.
Many even argued this result was due to the UAE being a petrostate with considerable interest in the fossil fuel industry. This is particularly concerning because Azerbaijan, ranked 104th in the world in adopting measures to fight climate change—according to Yale University's Environmental Performance Index—will host next year's COP29. During the closing plenary, COP28's President Sultan Al-Jaber attempted to dismiss these criticisms by telling the delegates, "I must say that you did it: you delivered... This is a true victory of multilateralism." Some Western media reinforced this narrative. For example, Bloomberg published an op-ed writing, "The COP28 climate talks in Dubai ended in a historic deal that committed the world to a transition away from all fossil fuels;" while the New York Times defined the COP28 final document as a "milestone."
However, this year's COP28 had significant shortcomings. First, while the COP28 occurred in Dubai, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a state visit about 86 miles away in Abu Dhabi. He met with the UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to expand bilateral ties and discuss current international issues. On energy, both countries agreed to cut oil production to increase market prices, a goal that Moscow failed to achieve this year despite the Saudi pressure. Climate activists criticized the visit and UAE's attempt to advance a fossil fuel and green agenda simultaneously.
Second, given the volunteer, non-binding nature of the COP's final documents, its final weak declaration ("transitioning away") is disappointing. Combating climate change is a political process pursued by governments that can change over time, and the international community has few tools to balance this situation. One of them is more actionable written commitments in the hope of making the policies of every government more ambitious.
Lastly, the COP28 has achieved limited economic success. Despite Sultan Al Jaber's celebrations of a new $85 billion climate finance commitment, this amount is far from the roughly $250 billion annually the United Nations estimates as necessary to adapt to rising temperatures in developing countries.
In the next few years, the international community will face some crucial climate-related challenges, and the COPs have always been considered the most important place to address them. However, the climate governance weaknesses that emerged last year at COP28—and will affect COP29 in 2024—need a severe reflection from policymakers worldwide, who are now called upon to solve the most dangerous environmental threats while improving climate, multilateral institutions—a double challenge requiring double efforts.
