n mid-April 2023, Sudan plunged into a military conflict between the regular army, headed by Sudanese President Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a parallel army controlled by Vice President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Both men were members of Sudan's ruling council, a transitional body created in 2019 after deposing Sudan's authoritarian former president , Omar al-Bashir. Some weeks before the conflict outbreak, al-Burhan and Dagalo could not agree on how the RSF should be incorporated into the regular army. This event was the final step toward the conflict outbreak.
As of late July 2023, more than 2.8 million people have been displaced, including 2.2 million internally and 600,000 externally to Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Central African Republic. This humanitarian crisis could plunge the Horn of Africa into chaos.
During the last three months, the military dispute escalated, expanding in different areas of the country and involving some other actors, such as the United Nations. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that Sudan is now on "the brink of a full-scale civil war."
A series of events have led to the current situation. On 6 May 2023, the factions involved tried to mediate in Jeddah in the presence of U.S. and Saudi negotiators. The official army and the RSF agreed to halt hostilities but failed to respect the accord. Artillery, gunfire, and air raids continued to strike the country's capital days after the deal.
One month later, on 1 June 2023,, the United States imposed sanctions on four companies accused of fueling the conflict, two close to the regular army and the others close to the RSF. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. aimed to "cut off key financial flows to both [sides]." But so far, this choice did not succeed in slowing the hostilities.
Also, two additional truces announced on 10 and 17 June 2023 were ineffective, followed by violent clashes. For example, on June 15 2023, the RSF killed the regional governor of West Darfur because of his criticism of the paramilitary force in a TV interview.
In early July, there was another diplomatic truce effort from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)—a regional organization comprising the Horn of Africa countries. Government representatives gathered in Addis Ababa to kick-start a peace process.
The meeting resulted in a dramatic failure after the delegation of the Sudanese regular army did not attend the first days of sessions because of the appointment of Kenyan President William Ruto as chair of the committee for peace talks.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the country has collapsed. The International Criminal Court has launched an investigation regarding human rights abuses in the Darfur region, including crimes against children, rapes, and murders.
As of early August, the regular army is trying to recapture the country's capital Khartoum, one of the areas most affected by the clashes. The RSF responded to the attacks with equal violence, resulting in further killings.
The weather has exacerbated the humanitarian situation because of seasonal rains that, according to a UNHRC official, will increase severe cholera and spread malaria. Also, more than 500 houses in the northern areas are reportedly destroyed.
The Sudan civil war could last months or years with potential consequences for the whole region, especially the security situation. For this reason, the international community must adopt a robust and timely approach by involving all key stakeholders with interests in the country.
Russia, China, and the United States have different footprints in Sudan. Moscow, for example, wants to protect its gold extraction activities while advancing the establishment of a naval base in the Red Sea, as provided for in an agreement signed in 2020.
Also, Beijing should cooperate to rebuild stability and end hostilities. Sudan has been a target of China’s investments over the years, especially in the transport, agriculture, and energy sectors.
Both China and Russia have different approaches to the Sudan issue. Theodore Karasik, a Middle East analyst, told VOA, "[We should pay attention to] how Russia will interact with China in Sudan because in different parts of the continent, they behave differently, or sometimes in tandem, in terms of their approach to extraction economics."
Lastly, the United States has adopted a three-dimensional approach towards Sudan: confronting China-Russia's influence in the region, protecting the current system of alliances, and avoiding the spread of terrorism. Its interests are thus more related to geopolitical and security issues.
It is impossible to predict when and how the conflict will end. However, all these actors have at least a common starting point: They seek a ceasefire as soon as possible, and the United Nations seem to be the only place where this can occur.
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As Sudan Spirals, the Scramble for a Truce
Tuti Bridge in Khartoum, Sudan. Image by Christopher Michel via Wikimedia Commons under Creative Commons license CC BY 2.0
August 21, 2023
Internal conflict within Sudan has continued to spiral out of control and is on the brink of full civil war, leading to around 2.8 million displaced persons. Previous diplomatic efforts failed, and time is running out to find a solution, which would likely be UN brokered, writes Elia Preto Martini.
I
n mid-April 2023, Sudan plunged into a military conflict between the regular army, headed by Sudanese President Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a parallel army controlled by Vice President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Both men were members of Sudan's ruling council, a transitional body created in 2019 after deposing Sudan's authoritarian former president , Omar al-Bashir. Some weeks before the conflict outbreak, al-Burhan and Dagalo could not agree on how the RSF should be incorporated into the regular army. This event was the final step toward the conflict outbreak.
As of late July 2023, more than 2.8 million people have been displaced, including 2.2 million internally and 600,000 externally to Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Central African Republic. This humanitarian crisis could plunge the Horn of Africa into chaos.
During the last three months, the military dispute escalated, expanding in different areas of the country and involving some other actors, such as the United Nations. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that Sudan is now on "the brink of a full-scale civil war."
A series of events have led to the current situation. On 6 May 2023, the factions involved tried to mediate in Jeddah in the presence of U.S. and Saudi negotiators. The official army and the RSF agreed to halt hostilities but failed to respect the accord. Artillery, gunfire, and air raids continued to strike the country's capital days after the deal.
One month later, on 1 June 2023,, the United States imposed sanctions on four companies accused of fueling the conflict, two close to the regular army and the others close to the RSF. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. aimed to "cut off key financial flows to both [sides]." But so far, this choice did not succeed in slowing the hostilities.
Also, two additional truces announced on 10 and 17 June 2023 were ineffective, followed by violent clashes. For example, on June 15 2023, the RSF killed the regional governor of West Darfur because of his criticism of the paramilitary force in a TV interview.
In early July, there was another diplomatic truce effort from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)—a regional organization comprising the Horn of Africa countries. Government representatives gathered in Addis Ababa to kick-start a peace process.
The meeting resulted in a dramatic failure after the delegation of the Sudanese regular army did not attend the first days of sessions because of the appointment of Kenyan President William Ruto as chair of the committee for peace talks.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the country has collapsed. The International Criminal Court has launched an investigation regarding human rights abuses in the Darfur region, including crimes against children, rapes, and murders.
As of early August, the regular army is trying to recapture the country's capital Khartoum, one of the areas most affected by the clashes. The RSF responded to the attacks with equal violence, resulting in further killings.
The weather has exacerbated the humanitarian situation because of seasonal rains that, according to a UNHRC official, will increase severe cholera and spread malaria. Also, more than 500 houses in the northern areas are reportedly destroyed.
The Sudan civil war could last months or years with potential consequences for the whole region, especially the security situation. For this reason, the international community must adopt a robust and timely approach by involving all key stakeholders with interests in the country.
Russia, China, and the United States have different footprints in Sudan. Moscow, for example, wants to protect its gold extraction activities while advancing the establishment of a naval base in the Red Sea, as provided for in an agreement signed in 2020.
Also, Beijing should cooperate to rebuild stability and end hostilities. Sudan has been a target of China’s investments over the years, especially in the transport, agriculture, and energy sectors.
Both China and Russia have different approaches to the Sudan issue. Theodore Karasik, a Middle East analyst, told VOA, "[We should pay attention to] how Russia will interact with China in Sudan because in different parts of the continent, they behave differently, or sometimes in tandem, in terms of their approach to extraction economics."
Lastly, the United States has adopted a three-dimensional approach towards Sudan: confronting China-Russia's influence in the region, protecting the current system of alliances, and avoiding the spread of terrorism. Its interests are thus more related to geopolitical and security issues.
It is impossible to predict when and how the conflict will end. However, all these actors have at least a common starting point: They seek a ceasefire as soon as possible, and the United Nations seem to be the only place where this can occur.
