espite Russia’s apocalyptic announcements, the European Union will unlikely “freeze to death” without Russian natural gas this winter. Gas storage across Europe are nearly full, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are on track to hit record levels. The EU continues reaching long-term deals with other natural gas producers—aiming to replace Russia as Europe’s major gas supplier while simultaneously achieving the EU’s climate goals. This is not to say that the coming winter will be easy. European gas storage systems are only designed to last a few months—meaning that if Russia, for whatever reason, halts gas supplies to Europe, many countries could face gas shortages and even blackouts. In such a case, EU member states may find themselves turning to less climate-friendly energy alternatives, endangering long-term climate goals to stave off an immediate energy crisis.
The European Union was hoping to avoid power outages by importing electricity from Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in July that Ukraine had begun exporting electricity to the EU through Romania. Yet on August 31, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the electricity market in Europe was no longer functioning "because there is one actor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is systematically trying to destroy it and manipulate it.” Indeed, following recent Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, Kyiv announced that it was forced to halt electricity exports to the European Union. Unless consumption is reduced, blackouts in some European countries could soon become reality.
As Daniel Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, pointed out, the effects of a potential energy crisis could be more severe than the oil shock of the 1970s because the crisis encompasses more than just oil. Several EU members are still importing nuclear fuel from Russia as no EU embargo on the Russian nuclear industry has been enacted. In other ways, the EU is seeking to end its dependence on Russian energy products, having already banned Russian coal imports while a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products will go into effect on December 5. The EU also plans to gradually end its dependence on Russian natural gas, but recent explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines—a tragic event that could be considered a climate disaster—could speed up the process of Europe’s gas decoupling from Moscow. While there are arguments to be made this is good energy security policy in the long run, it puts the EU in a precarious energy situation now, with potentially disastrous effects for the bloc’s climate agenda.
Russian natural gas supply into Europe is at short-term danger in other ways as well. The TurkStream pipeline—which brings Russian natural gas into the EU via Turkey—is the only relatively stable gas transit route linking Russia and Europe. The future of that pipeline is also in doubt. Dutch authorities in September decided to withdraw pipeline operator South Stream Transport B.V.’s license, as it is a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom. While South Stream is appealing the decision, maintenance and repair work on the pipeline is being hindered by EU sanctions.
It will take time for the EU to build energy diversity. Ambitions to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU’s electricity mix to 45% are under threat—along with measures that would help renewables projects face up to legal challenges. This not only endangers EU climate ambitions but makes natural gas supply even more vital. Experts in Russia, meanwhile, warn it will likely take the EU at least five years to build enough infrastructure to replace Russian natural gas supplies with other suppliers. Such efforts by the EU include Baltic Pipe—which could supply about half of Poland’s annual natural gas consumption—expanded trade with Algeria and Azerbaijan, and more LNG import terminals. In the short-term, all of these measures to replace are unlikely to help Europe to find an alternative to 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas that it purchased from Russia in 2021. As such, the coming winter will undoubtedly be a good test for European energy solidarity. It will also show if Europe, in the long-term, can live without Russian energy, particularly gas.
Whatever the future looks like, there is a real fear that European energy supplies won’t be enough right now. Some EU members are already considering reviving their old coal-fired power plants, regardless of the implications for the European Union’s environmental commitments. Europe’s long-term energy and climate action future, it is increasingly clear, will depend not only on decarbonization strategy but on the outcome of the Ukraine war.
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Are European Climate Commitments the Next Russian Casualty?
Mölsheim, Germany. Photo by Karsten Würth via Unsplash.
October 26, 2022
If Russia halts all gas supplies to Europe this winter, many countries could face gas shortages and even blackouts. In such a case, EU member states may find themselves turning to less climate-friendly energy alternatives, endangering long-term climate goals, writes Nikola Mikovic.
D
espite Russia’s apocalyptic announcements, the European Union will unlikely “freeze to death” without Russian natural gas this winter. Gas storage across Europe are nearly full, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are on track to hit record levels. The EU continues reaching long-term deals with other natural gas producers—aiming to replace Russia as Europe’s major gas supplier while simultaneously achieving the EU’s climate goals. This is not to say that the coming winter will be easy. European gas storage systems are only designed to last a few months—meaning that if Russia, for whatever reason, halts gas supplies to Europe, many countries could face gas shortages and even blackouts. In such a case, EU member states may find themselves turning to less climate-friendly energy alternatives, endangering long-term climate goals to stave off an immediate energy crisis.
The European Union was hoping to avoid power outages by importing electricity from Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in July that Ukraine had begun exporting electricity to the EU through Romania. Yet on August 31, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the electricity market in Europe was no longer functioning "because there is one actor, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is systematically trying to destroy it and manipulate it.” Indeed, following recent Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, Kyiv announced that it was forced to halt electricity exports to the European Union. Unless consumption is reduced, blackouts in some European countries could soon become reality.
As Daniel Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, pointed out, the effects of a potential energy crisis could be more severe than the oil shock of the 1970s because the crisis encompasses more than just oil. Several EU members are still importing nuclear fuel from Russia as no EU embargo on the Russian nuclear industry has been enacted. In other ways, the EU is seeking to end its dependence on Russian energy products, having already banned Russian coal imports while a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products will go into effect on December 5. The EU also plans to gradually end its dependence on Russian natural gas, but recent explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines—a tragic event that could be considered a climate disaster—could speed up the process of Europe’s gas decoupling from Moscow. While there are arguments to be made this is good energy security policy in the long run, it puts the EU in a precarious energy situation now, with potentially disastrous effects for the bloc’s climate agenda.
Russian natural gas supply into Europe is at short-term danger in other ways as well. The TurkStream pipeline—which brings Russian natural gas into the EU via Turkey—is the only relatively stable gas transit route linking Russia and Europe. The future of that pipeline is also in doubt. Dutch authorities in September decided to withdraw pipeline operator South Stream Transport B.V.’s license, as it is a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom. While South Stream is appealing the decision, maintenance and repair work on the pipeline is being hindered by EU sanctions.
It will take time for the EU to build energy diversity. Ambitions to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU’s electricity mix to 45% are under threat—along with measures that would help renewables projects face up to legal challenges. This not only endangers EU climate ambitions but makes natural gas supply even more vital. Experts in Russia, meanwhile, warn it will likely take the EU at least five years to build enough infrastructure to replace Russian natural gas supplies with other suppliers. Such efforts by the EU include Baltic Pipe—which could supply about half of Poland’s annual natural gas consumption—expanded trade with Algeria and Azerbaijan, and more LNG import terminals. In the short-term, all of these measures to replace are unlikely to help Europe to find an alternative to 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas that it purchased from Russia in 2021. As such, the coming winter will undoubtedly be a good test for European energy solidarity. It will also show if Europe, in the long-term, can live without Russian energy, particularly gas.
Whatever the future looks like, there is a real fear that European energy supplies won’t be enough right now. Some EU members are already considering reviving their old coal-fired power plants, regardless of the implications for the European Union’s environmental commitments. Europe’s long-term energy and climate action future, it is increasingly clear, will depend not only on decarbonization strategy but on the outcome of the Ukraine war.
