n 6 February 2023, two earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes hit the area between southeast Turkey and northwest Syria. As of 10 March 2023, about 55,000 people have lost their lives, while 115,000 were injured. In the first hours after the emergency, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency in the quakes zone, which allowed him to bypass the Parliament and suspend personal freedoms.
Reducing policy-making time to counter an urgent disaster explains this choice. However, many analysts and observers pointed out that these powers will allow Erdogan to rule by decree until a few days before the election. According to Jenny White, a professor at Stockholm University, "[it is] not sure that there will be an election. [There is] a state of emergency now."
Many Turkish citizens criticized Erdogan's government for mismanaging the crisis. Soon after the quakes, no military forces were deployed in the area, and many survivors denounced that they could not contact the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). To avoid widespread displays of dissent, the government limited access to Twitter to prevent people from criticizing government inefficiencies, thus complicating the rescue of survivors.
Back in 2018, the country adopted new seismic standards, which required high-quality concrete mixed with steel bars for buildings in earthquake-prone zones. Nonetheless, these standards seem not to have been met. Turkey, a country reliant on real estate development for its economic growth, also appears to have managed public procurement opaquely, favoring companies close to Erdogan's government.
The earthquake occurred during a period of low popularity for Erdogan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). In the last few years, Turkey experienced a steady economic crisis characterized by a 24-year-high inflation rate of 85.5% in October 2022. The Turkish lira reached a record low of 18.96 against the dollar in early March.
All these events may challenge Erdogan's confirmation. As we reported in early February, it is "impossible to predict how far the president could go to pursue reelection. The possible outcomes span from a de facto coup or electoral fraud to conceding defeat." Despite fears that the vote would be postponed indefinitely, Erdogan seems to have confirmed the elections on 14 May 2023.
The opposition recently announced support for a unique candidate, i.e., Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the social democratic and pro-Europe Republican People's Party (CHP). He is currently trying to enlist Kurdish support without antagonizing the nationalist vote. Mithat Sancar, co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), declared: "If we can agree on fundamental principles, we may support him in presidential elections."
According to the last polls, Erdogan seems about 10 percentage points behind the opposition. Also, a Metropoll survey found that 34.4% of Turkish people considered the government responsible for earthquake casualties, while 26.9% blamed contractors. This fact means that, contrary to what one might assume, the tragic event has only slightly worsened public opinion toward the government.
In addition to increasing public expenditure to regain popularity—such as raising civil servants' pensions by 30% and minimum wages by 55%—Erdogan is trying to relaunch its regional foreign policy.
On 6 March 2023, for example, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 billion into the Turkish central bank to help Ankara stabilize its weak currency. The state-run Saudi Press Agency defined the choice as "a testament to the close cooperation and historical ties that exist between the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Turkey and its brotherly people."
Erdogan is also restoring ties with Greece after years of crisis in the Aegean Sea over sovereignty rights. On 7 February 2023, Athens was the first European country to step in to help. The Turkish government greatly appreciated these efforts, and the domestic media constantly covered them. Experts use the definition of "earthquake diplomacy" to define these dialogues, and Erdogan will surely instrumentalize it before the election.
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After Turkey's Earthquake, Erdogan’s Reelection Difficulties
İskenderun, Turkey-one of the places most affected by the 7.7 magnitude earthquake centered in Kahramanmaraş. Photo by Çağlar Oskay on Unsplash
April 5, 2023
The earthquakes which rocked Turkey and Syria have had political as well as economic and humanitarian repercussions. In Turkey, President Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency-quelling political dissent-endangering the fairness of upcoming elections, writes Elia Preto Martini.
O
n 6 February 2023, two earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitudes hit the area between southeast Turkey and northwest Syria. As of 10 March 2023, about 55,000 people have lost their lives, while 115,000 were injured. In the first hours after the emergency, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency in the quakes zone, which allowed him to bypass the Parliament and suspend personal freedoms.
Reducing policy-making time to counter an urgent disaster explains this choice. However, many analysts and observers pointed out that these powers will allow Erdogan to rule by decree until a few days before the election. According to Jenny White, a professor at Stockholm University, "[it is] not sure that there will be an election. [There is] a state of emergency now."
Many Turkish citizens criticized Erdogan's government for mismanaging the crisis. Soon after the quakes, no military forces were deployed in the area, and many survivors denounced that they could not contact the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD). To avoid widespread displays of dissent, the government limited access to Twitter to prevent people from criticizing government inefficiencies, thus complicating the rescue of survivors.
Back in 2018, the country adopted new seismic standards, which required high-quality concrete mixed with steel bars for buildings in earthquake-prone zones. Nonetheless, these standards seem not to have been met. Turkey, a country reliant on real estate development for its economic growth, also appears to have managed public procurement opaquely, favoring companies close to Erdogan's government.
The earthquake occurred during a period of low popularity for Erdogan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP). In the last few years, Turkey experienced a steady economic crisis characterized by a 24-year-high inflation rate of 85.5% in October 2022. The Turkish lira reached a record low of 18.96 against the dollar in early March.
All these events may challenge Erdogan's confirmation. As we reported in early February, it is "impossible to predict how far the president could go to pursue reelection. The possible outcomes span from a de facto coup or electoral fraud to conceding defeat." Despite fears that the vote would be postponed indefinitely, Erdogan seems to have confirmed the elections on 14 May 2023.
The opposition recently announced support for a unique candidate, i.e., Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the social democratic and pro-Europe Republican People's Party (CHP). He is currently trying to enlist Kurdish support without antagonizing the nationalist vote. Mithat Sancar, co-leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), declared: "If we can agree on fundamental principles, we may support him in presidential elections."
According to the last polls, Erdogan seems about 10 percentage points behind the opposition. Also, a Metropoll survey found that 34.4% of Turkish people considered the government responsible for earthquake casualties, while 26.9% blamed contractors. This fact means that, contrary to what one might assume, the tragic event has only slightly worsened public opinion toward the government.
In addition to increasing public expenditure to regain popularity—such as raising civil servants' pensions by 30% and minimum wages by 55%—Erdogan is trying to relaunch its regional foreign policy.
On 6 March 2023, for example, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 billion into the Turkish central bank to help Ankara stabilize its weak currency. The state-run Saudi Press Agency defined the choice as "a testament to the close cooperation and historical ties that exist between the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Turkey and its brotherly people."
Erdogan is also restoring ties with Greece after years of crisis in the Aegean Sea over sovereignty rights. On 7 February 2023, Athens was the first European country to step in to help. The Turkish government greatly appreciated these efforts, and the domestic media constantly covered them. Experts use the definition of "earthquake diplomacy" to define these dialogues, and Erdogan will surely instrumentalize it before the election.
