The opportunity to rebuild Afghanistan has been squandered, and America is losing the war. Since the fall of the Taliban in November 2001, Afghanistan has not evolved into a functioning state. Democracy never had a chance to take root. Without exception, the country’s elections were rigged, allowing the worst elements of society to rise to the top. Warlords have retained their power. Institutions have stayed weak and ineffective. The government is infested with corruption and nepotism.
Kim Howell, a former minister at the British Foreign Service overseeing Britain’s involvement in Afghanistan, once accused the Afghan government of being corrupt “from top to bottom.” And on April 4, 2013, The Wall Street Journal reported the result of a survey that the United Nation’s Office on Drugs and Crime has carried out. According to this survey, Afghan citizens paid about $3.9 billion in bribes in 2012—twice the amount of the country’s tax revenue.
Endemic corruption, utter lawlessness, and government incompetence have pushed Afghanistan to the brink of disaster. Deteriorating security and the failure of the government to plan and execute the country’s economic and institutional reconstruction have left the great majority of the population under arbitrary rule and mired in abject poverty.
In the absence of the rule of law, a productive economy based on private enterprise did not develop, and jobs were not created to ease the country’s high unemployment rate. It is not surprising that the largest group among illegal immigrants trying to enter Greece in the west and Australia in the east consists of young Afghans, who risk life and limb and reportedly pay $20,000 to flee the utter hopelessness that today’s Afghanistan presents its people. And it is the fear of what is in store for the Afghan people after 2014 that propels 40 percent of Afghan diplomats not to return home from overseas postings.
Once, the country had a vibrant textile industry and exported millions of meters of cloth. Today, there is no textile manufacturing to speak of. While billions of tons of limestone wait to be processed, cement factories remain closed or operate marginally, and 95 percent of the country’s need for cement is imported.
Agriculture—the country’s most important economic sector, where 80 percent of Afghans eke out a subsistence living—has been ignored. Afghanistan’s cotton yield, once a valuable export item, has declined to a mere 15 percent of its former harvest. Even basic fares—such as milk, cheese, eggs, and poultry—comes from neighboring countries.
All the while, the production of opium has been a phenomenal success. In 2001, Afghanistan produced about 200 tons of opium. Today, that figure exceeds 8,000 tons. Never mind whether corruption has propelled Afghanistan to first place in the production of opium, or whether the trade with illegal drugs has distinguished it to be among the three most corrupt countries in the world. TIME columnist Joe Klein once observed that the reason for the failure to reverse Afghanistan’s opium production is “because some of the proceeds are skimmed by officials and perhaps family members of the stupendously corrupt government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.”
Afghanistan is still the failed state it was in 2001 when U.S. forces invaded it. Without strong institutions and a functioning economy, it is stuck in insecurity and wretched poverty. Despite the billions of dollars that were poured into Afghanistan, three million children suffer from malnutrition. Just 15 miles outside Kabul, the night belongs to insurgents.
In view of the withdrawal of most foreign troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, that country’s new millionaires have already sent most of their money abroad. In 2012 alone, over four billion dollars, a quarter of Afghanistan’s GNP, was taken abroad in suitcases.
Warlords are adding newer and better weapons to their arsenal. And contrary to the Afghan people’s warm welcome of the international troops in 2001, most Afghans today view foreign troops as invaders and the Afghan government their tool.
Make no mistake: The U.S.-led coalition of nations present in Afghanistan is by no means blameless. It installed the current leadership and financed sham elections. It lectured against corruption, but looked the other way when it came to act against it. And the phenomenal growth of poppy cultivation and opium trade took place under the very noses of 100,000 foreign troops. As the above-mentioned Kim Howell once observed, the U.S.-led international community engaged in Afghanistan wrongly treated President Hamid Karzai with “kid gloves.”
Whatever mistakes the U.S. and its allies have made is done and can no longer be undone. However, what they should do is to avoid making another serious mistake that could spell disaster in years to come. Leaving Afghanistan in its present condition would be such a mistake.
Quitting Afghanistan once again, before the job was done, would almost certainly lead to disaster. Hopelessness and the black hole of misery will again become fertile grounds for criminals and international terrorists. And the Free World would again be forced to face an enemy at enormous cost—both in life and treasure.
The responsible thing to do would be to acknowledge that we have messed it up and begin all over again.
First, we must recognize that nothing can be achieved as long as the warlords and drug kingpins can hang on to their power. They are the product of chaos. They know that lawlessness has been the bedrock of their success and will do anything to keep it that way. Their hold on power must be broken.
Second, we must reintroduce the concept of democracy—not as a foreign instrument to oppress the populace, as is now understood by many Afghans, but as the best system of government that guaranties justice and progress. We must make sure that the next presidential elections are free of manipulation and vote rigging. One way to achieve this is to issue new electronic voter cards. Late last year, Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission declared the voting cards that had been used in the last presidential and parliamentary elections invalid on grounds that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of fake cards had been issued, rendering the next presidential elections, scheduled to be held in April 2014, as fraudulent as the last one had been. President Karzai objected and forced the chairman of the Independent Election Commission to accept the old voting cards, the ones with the help of which he had secured his second term.
If the U.S. and its allies wish to see fair elections and a legitimate presidency, then they should take off the “kid gloves” and insist that the old voting cards be discarded and new ones issued.
Lastly and perhaps most importantly, the alliance must make sure that it leaves behind a functioning and self-sustaining economy. Only then will people can hope that they have a future in their country.
All that will cost money. But if it is done less wastefully and more prudently the cost will be a trickle of what has been spent in the past 12 years. And this time, the U.S. and its allies should also do it less complacently and far more thoughtfully.
Nasir Shansab was once one of Afghanistan’s leading industrialists until he was forced to leave in 1975. In recent years he has returned often to view the country’s struggles firsthand. His novel, Silent Trees, has just been published.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's May/June 2013 print edition.
Photo: Capt. Peter Shinn, Joint Task Force 101 (cc).
a global affairs media network
Afghanistan on the Brink of Disaster
May 23, 2013
The opportunity to rebuild Afghanistan has been squandered, and America is losing the war. Since the fall of the Taliban in November 2001, Afghanistan has not evolved into a functioning state. Democracy never had a chance to take root. Without exception, the country’s elections were rigged, allowing the worst elements of society to rise to the top. Warlords have retained their power. Institutions have stayed weak and ineffective. The government is infested with corruption and nepotism.
Kim Howell, a former minister at the British Foreign Service overseeing Britain’s involvement in Afghanistan, once accused the Afghan government of being corrupt “from top to bottom.” And on April 4, 2013, The Wall Street Journal reported the result of a survey that the United Nation’s Office on Drugs and Crime has carried out. According to this survey, Afghan citizens paid about $3.9 billion in bribes in 2012—twice the amount of the country’s tax revenue.
Endemic corruption, utter lawlessness, and government incompetence have pushed Afghanistan to the brink of disaster. Deteriorating security and the failure of the government to plan and execute the country’s economic and institutional reconstruction have left the great majority of the population under arbitrary rule and mired in abject poverty.
In the absence of the rule of law, a productive economy based on private enterprise did not develop, and jobs were not created to ease the country’s high unemployment rate. It is not surprising that the largest group among illegal immigrants trying to enter Greece in the west and Australia in the east consists of young Afghans, who risk life and limb and reportedly pay $20,000 to flee the utter hopelessness that today’s Afghanistan presents its people. And it is the fear of what is in store for the Afghan people after 2014 that propels 40 percent of Afghan diplomats not to return home from overseas postings.
Once, the country had a vibrant textile industry and exported millions of meters of cloth. Today, there is no textile manufacturing to speak of. While billions of tons of limestone wait to be processed, cement factories remain closed or operate marginally, and 95 percent of the country’s need for cement is imported.
Agriculture—the country’s most important economic sector, where 80 percent of Afghans eke out a subsistence living—has been ignored. Afghanistan’s cotton yield, once a valuable export item, has declined to a mere 15 percent of its former harvest. Even basic fares—such as milk, cheese, eggs, and poultry—comes from neighboring countries.
All the while, the production of opium has been a phenomenal success. In 2001, Afghanistan produced about 200 tons of opium. Today, that figure exceeds 8,000 tons. Never mind whether corruption has propelled Afghanistan to first place in the production of opium, or whether the trade with illegal drugs has distinguished it to be among the three most corrupt countries in the world. TIME columnist Joe Klein once observed that the reason for the failure to reverse Afghanistan’s opium production is “because some of the proceeds are skimmed by officials and perhaps family members of the stupendously corrupt government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai.”
Afghanistan is still the failed state it was in 2001 when U.S. forces invaded it. Without strong institutions and a functioning economy, it is stuck in insecurity and wretched poverty. Despite the billions of dollars that were poured into Afghanistan, three million children suffer from malnutrition. Just 15 miles outside Kabul, the night belongs to insurgents.
In view of the withdrawal of most foreign troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, that country’s new millionaires have already sent most of their money abroad. In 2012 alone, over four billion dollars, a quarter of Afghanistan’s GNP, was taken abroad in suitcases.
Warlords are adding newer and better weapons to their arsenal. And contrary to the Afghan people’s warm welcome of the international troops in 2001, most Afghans today view foreign troops as invaders and the Afghan government their tool.
Make no mistake: The U.S.-led coalition of nations present in Afghanistan is by no means blameless. It installed the current leadership and financed sham elections. It lectured against corruption, but looked the other way when it came to act against it. And the phenomenal growth of poppy cultivation and opium trade took place under the very noses of 100,000 foreign troops. As the above-mentioned Kim Howell once observed, the U.S.-led international community engaged in Afghanistan wrongly treated President Hamid Karzai with “kid gloves.”
Whatever mistakes the U.S. and its allies have made is done and can no longer be undone. However, what they should do is to avoid making another serious mistake that could spell disaster in years to come. Leaving Afghanistan in its present condition would be such a mistake.
Quitting Afghanistan once again, before the job was done, would almost certainly lead to disaster. Hopelessness and the black hole of misery will again become fertile grounds for criminals and international terrorists. And the Free World would again be forced to face an enemy at enormous cost—both in life and treasure.
The responsible thing to do would be to acknowledge that we have messed it up and begin all over again.
First, we must recognize that nothing can be achieved as long as the warlords and drug kingpins can hang on to their power. They are the product of chaos. They know that lawlessness has been the bedrock of their success and will do anything to keep it that way. Their hold on power must be broken.
Second, we must reintroduce the concept of democracy—not as a foreign instrument to oppress the populace, as is now understood by many Afghans, but as the best system of government that guaranties justice and progress. We must make sure that the next presidential elections are free of manipulation and vote rigging. One way to achieve this is to issue new electronic voter cards. Late last year, Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission declared the voting cards that had been used in the last presidential and parliamentary elections invalid on grounds that hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of fake cards had been issued, rendering the next presidential elections, scheduled to be held in April 2014, as fraudulent as the last one had been. President Karzai objected and forced the chairman of the Independent Election Commission to accept the old voting cards, the ones with the help of which he had secured his second term.
If the U.S. and its allies wish to see fair elections and a legitimate presidency, then they should take off the “kid gloves” and insist that the old voting cards be discarded and new ones issued.
Lastly and perhaps most importantly, the alliance must make sure that it leaves behind a functioning and self-sustaining economy. Only then will people can hope that they have a future in their country.
All that will cost money. But if it is done less wastefully and more prudently the cost will be a trickle of what has been spent in the past 12 years. And this time, the U.S. and its allies should also do it less complacently and far more thoughtfully.
Nasir Shansab was once one of Afghanistan’s leading industrialists until he was forced to leave in 1975. In recent years he has returned often to view the country’s struggles firsthand. His novel, Silent Trees, has just been published.
This article was originally published in the Diplomatic Courier's May/June 2013 print edition.
Photo: Capt. Peter Shinn, Joint Task Force 101 (cc).
